The 2008 spike in federal spending was TARP, I guess, and related stuff. At the start of the spike, GDP was growing 2%, and the end of the spike GDP was growing -2%. That was a 20% spike in government spending. The second spike was a 40% rise in federal spending, and that was followed by a 10% growth in GDP. I dealt with that spike, and the multiplier looked to be under 1.0. Then we go to late 2009 to 2010, and another 10% growth in spending and GDP started a downward path. Next we have a 10% growth in federal spending, GDP growth in the noise.
I don't get Macroadvisors. We are in the dump regardless of how rosy they view Congressional spending, yet they still see an effect. Someone help me here, where is the effect?
Mathematically, if they use the stochastic calculus, then they are also predicting mini-crashes at the end of each stimulus. Well I see a double dip, something one would expect when Congress has increased debt by $5 trillion. Otherwise, I see a bunch if liar economists at MacroAdvisors.
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