Are we there yet?

Better unemployment stats, courtesey BLS:

Table B.  States with statistically significant unemployment rate changes
  from October 2012 to November 2012, seasonally adjusted
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  |          Rate         |
                                  |-----------|-----------| Over-the-month
               State              |  October  |  November |    change(p)
                                  |    2012   |   2012(p) |
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Alabama ........................|     8.1   |     7.5   |      -0.6
  Alaska .........................|     7.1   |     6.8   |       -.3
  California .....................|    10.1   |     9.8   |       -.3
  Florida ........................|     8.5   |     8.1   |       -.4
  Georgia ........................|     8.7   |     8.5   |       -.2
  Hawaii .........................|     5.5   |     5.3   |       -.2
  Idaho ..........................|     7.0   |     6.8   |       -.2
  Iowa ...........................|     5.1   |     4.9   |       -.2
  Kansas .........................|     5.7   |     5.4   |       -.3
  Louisiana ......................|     6.6   |     5.8   |       -.8
  Minnesota ......................|     5.9   |     5.7   |       -.2
  Mississippi ....................|     9.0   |     8.5   |       -.5
  Nebraska .......................|     3.8   |     3.7   |       -.1
  Nevada .........................|    11.5   |    10.8   |       -.7
  New York .......................|     8.7   |     8.3   |       -.4
  North Carolina .................|     9.3   |     9.1   |       -.2
  Pennsylvania ...................|     8.1   |     7.8   |       -.3
  Tennessee ......................|     8.2   |     7.6   |       -.6
  Texas ..........................|     6.6   |     6.2   |       -.4
  Vermont ........................|     5.5   |     5.2   |       -.3
  Virginia .......................|     5.7   |     5.6   |       -.1
  Washington .....................|     8.2   |     7.8   |       -.4
  Wisconsin ......................|     6.9   |     6.7   |       -.2
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------

What does this mean? I am not an expert on unemployment rates, so how much of this is demographic and how much is stable real growth, is an uncertain question for me.

What about stable oil prices? That looks good, so far, when oil prices quit their periodicity then we know the supplier and demanders have agreed on stable distribution, and that is real growth. I expect much of the recent good news attributed to new oil supplies and stable oil deliveries.

What about fiscal multipliers? I have believed in multipliers less than one from DC, either banking or government. So, the fiscal cliff would be viewed as a multiplier greater than one, raising prices for shoddy Senate goods and shutting downs Ben's money pumper. As we approach fiscal cliff, I expect the economy to perform better. But how soon would we see this affect? Sooner than I expected, maybe. Much of the Christmas growth might be attributed to money leaving the bull bond market.

In summary: Get slightly optimistic, hope for the largest fiscal cliff we can get, and watch energy efficient machine technology.  But especially watch what happens in Jan, 2013 in DC; that is regime change month, the bond vigilantes have arrived.