Menzie Chen and multipliers

Your ergodic error, the same as always, getting nominal growth and real growth mixed up.

If we are ergodic in time, we optimize over fixed time periods and we use real growth, which may be negative or positive.

If we optimize the set of containers, we use nominal growth which is a positive definite variable.

Construct the stimulus theory in one frame or the other, not both.  If you are using time ergodicity, then you should have both negative and positive stimulus, show that in your work.  Explain how a time ergodic optimizer operates when the expected future real growth is negative.