Friday, February 9, 2018

Public Splaining needed

Attached to the CR is language raising the sequestration budget caps for fiscal years 2018 and 2019 by a total of $296 billion, suspending the debt ceiling until March 2019 and approving an additional $90 billion in disaster relief, among a host of other policy provisions.
Sounds like a 9% increase in spending to me. Not quite the continuing resolution we were promised. Note the hurricane costs about a half point of GDP.  We need real sequester, this budget will balloon the treasury curve and cause more crashing.
The Senate voted 71 to 28 to approve the measure and send it to the House, where it passed 240 to 186. Conservatives objected to how much money it spends, and Democrats, including House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi, voted against it since it excludes a deal on immigration.
Like, wow. They see something we don't. This looks like a sudden change, a pension stampede in entitlements. They got caught short.

About half of those program increases are likely just higher prices, the volatility price of raising production. That should register, ultimately as a 1% increase in inflation and rates.  Look at the chart of federal government spending increases:


Note, we were stable after we dumped the stimulus in 2011.

Otherwise we can see the spikes are mostly coincident with recession bailouts. The notable exception being 1992, and that required some real budgeting and taxes. 

I fear this is a huge recessionary bailout, a congress in desperation.  We might be looking at a sudden, recession jump in interest charges.

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