It is stalling oil production and raising oil demand. This means the FX insurance companies should be raising rate n the ten year to 1.5 for the second half. If the Fed cannot find another third of a point in taxes then the government ends up with just about the same rates, about 2-2.1%, Truman's number..
For an insurance agency my worry is maybe we need another push, a preventative. Boost it up to 1.5 real soon and give us some shock and awe preventative. Then the Californians are looking at a different story, their expected interest savings gone. There is going to be an extra 200 billion/yr in interest costs they did not really count on. They will end up paying interest equal to the stimulus over the cycle of the stimulus. Yelllen will be forced onto the short end, and we get rate cycle.
But if our FX insurance agency waits, and we get ht with $90 we get supply shock. They more likely will give us a bit of a push on the ten year, maybe 1.4
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