Wednesday, February 23, 2022

Ruskie will have a very long winter

 Ruble down 20%, stock market closed, economy cut off from trade.

The oligarchs will not like to see their yachts seized, or their wealth plummet. Today civilians  see a 20% price hike across the board.  China is not trading yuan for ruble at par, pre invasion.  

Ruskie was a dying breed, Putin got that right. One of the lowest birth rates and they took a huge hit from covid, still ravaging the soldiers in the field.  Europe seems angry enough with calls to deny Ruskie access to SWIFT.

Their economy will almost shutdown and the peons will lose faith soon as Ukranians hang in there. I think Putin blundered this, I see no gain in a victory for many years, and the Ruskie economy is not liquid enough to survive. Look for defections among the oligarchs first, then consumer protests will be wide ranging. Also look to the southern border with the islamostans as they press to take advantage.  Chechen rebels, in particular, will become active again, that show is not done.

Ruskie faced uphill battles to begin with, the last thing Ruskie needs is a long, drawn out  war bringing home many Ruskie bodies. Putin blundered, there is no doubt.

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