Trump is too bonehead for his own good. He is getting pissed at the rags, but still can't figure this stuff out.
Monday, April 27, 2020
Lower rates and more debt and recessions
Let's look at the longer period and verify Krugman's discovery.
Same chart below. And we see the ten year consistently drops as we have periodic recessions and increase debt.
The next chart shows real growth which we presume the private sector is aware of. Note the real growth always drops prior to the recession, hence the drop in rates.
It is a flat earther problem because the government sector, like Krugman, assumes programs scale properly in N, the number of participants. It does not, and it is not a two party problem, it is natural.
But the private sector cannot live without a future, and eventually the House will provide a future with a Fed regime change. Then we get mild stagflation, if it done right.
Krugman likes government bailouts after our regularly scheduled recessions, so does everyone.
I was marking Joe Biden's words
New York Cancels Dem Primary, Cuomo Says More Than 2.5 Million May Already Be Infected In NYC: Live Updates
And indeed, Joe Biden warned us about canceling elections.The Pompous one seems confused
To Pressure Iran, Pompeo Turns to the Deal Trump Renounced
I didn't read the article. I doubt anyone can elucidate any rationality out of this.
The secretary of state is preparing an argument that the U.S. remains a participant in the Obama-era nuclear deal, with the goal of extending an arms embargo or destroying the accord.Not sure what the confused idiot is up to. The USA is not selling arms to Iran, they buy from others or make their own. Nor am I sure what this bonehead thinks he can rescue from the Obama accords. it all seems a bit nutty to me, like our president.
I didn't read the article. I doubt anyone can elucidate any rationality out of this.
Constitution
Trump asks why taxpayers should help bail out blue states
Federal government has no way to do set asides for specific states, it is illegal in the Constitution and will be considered internal foreign policy, not any power granted or implied.
Federales can attempt a bailout nationwide pension funds, but that never passes without a bribe to state capitals, or an otherwise nightmare of an earmark process.
Empathy isn't sold by the gallon
An open letter to President Trump from his (now unfollowed) friend PIERS MORGAN: Cut the covid crap, stop whining, get serious and show some damn empathy - or it will cost you the White House
Piers Morgan, whoever he is, makes a strategic error. The letter needed to be closed so no one remembers that Trump's empathy was purchased by Piers.
More small state mob:
GOP Governor Warns Trump: Stop Spreading ‘Misinformation’ About Coronavirus
In a sudden crisis, the small states cannot assemble the brains. his is again the flat earth problem, small states end up two colored instead of three colored. Markov explained a lost of this stuff much better than Marx ever could.
Flat earth problem
Warren Buffett would be the first to describe himself as a capitalist. And yet he has noted many times over the years that market forces have their limitations, and that the government plays a role particularly in addressing inequities that are created by our economy.\The bean cones always assume N scales.
More flat earth:
JOE BIDEN: Corporate America is 'greedy as hell'
The politicians are flat earthers. Biden fails to realize the corporation agglomerate to match government, and that generally means Biden. It is the large banks that enable massive government debt, Biden could never do it without the primary dealers.Flat earther vs flat earther:
Periodically, I get emails from some guy named Tim Congdon of the Institute of International Monetary Research, bewailing the tendency “to shrug off the inflation risks that have in the past arisen from too much monetary financing of large budget deficits.” So…big increases in the Fed’s balance sheet: will they collide with reduced supply over the medium run to produce inflation? TIPS say no…
Menzie and the opposition both get it wrong. We get deflation until the N limit then we get regime change and a period of stagflation. How come Menzie forges about the stagflation of the 70s? And now we can see why, the House reaches its bandlimit and agrees to a meeting of the elders.
Sandbox does the adaptation on a second by second basis, the House does it on a generation by generation basis. Another:
Big-government conservatives mount takeover of GOP
But there are good reasons to believe it will end as soon as the next Democrat wins the presidency.They are talking Mark Rubio, who is generally clueless anyway. But this is about the small states problem, they have banded and are demanding federal adjustments. Really another flat earth problem, or using Krgman's words, these are not 50 little Hoovers.
Sunday, April 26, 2020
Nightmaresville
Anger in political circles, particularly in the Republican Party, has manifested itself in legislative proposals seeking to allow U.S citizens to sue China in American courts for the pandemic, calling for sanctions on Chinese officials
Former US ambassador to the UN and former South Carolina governor, Indian-American Nikki Haley, widely seen as a prospective last-minute vice-presidential nominee for a Trump second term, is among those pressing for action against Beijing. "China’s Communist government needs to be held accountable for their role in lying about the Coronavirus pandemic, and the US Congress needs to respond – now," Haley said in a STOP Communist China petition that received rousing endorsement in Republican circles this week.
Other US lawmakers want to go even further. In a precipitate suggestion, Haley’s fellow South Carolinian, Senator Lindsey Graham, who has President Trump’s ear, called for cancelling the more than $1 trillion in U.S treasury securities that China holds.
This fouls the process for creating a New Fed by contract. The defaults are fairly distributed, to those who hold and use the currency. The New Fed automates them for this specific reason, make the default sequence equally surprising with no hedges. Do this and the stagflation is quite mild.
Senator Graham is fairly ignorant about quite a few things, and we would like t ding their state capital for giving us the bonehead. The beauty of reform, ignoracts like Graham get hammered by their guvs right away because his ignorance cost all states large money in the next trade. So we can see the two contracts are quite entertwined, sadly. We cannot get a sane Fed with a sane trade to remove the Graham's of the world. Let the guvs deal with their own ignorant bums, leave the federales out of it.
Adaptive Markov
Neither the House, Senate or state capitals have sufficient banwdith to maintain partition. We know we are short N. So we engage in continual adaption and the color rates for our three color is determined by the adapting encoding of the state, House and Senate events with the voter/taxpayer.
Sand box trading pits do this, keep a running encoding of S to L while maintaining bound variance at the pit boss. Sandbox runs a low enough Markov to be separable and no more, the second level up. But we can show quasi stability via the three principles, free entry/exit, round robin access to the bidding queues and bound market making risk. Quasi stable because it will step down incrementally without queue collapse, adiabatic, one node change at a time with round robin robin fair peeking. Sandboxers know this quite well. Most of the major on line exchanges get this problem and can be quite stable.
So, given constant rates in the coloring problem, we can algorithmicly trim the factorial tree ex ante, this implies constant N. We should be able to write an algorithm to do that for any set of prime counters. Counters no sequentially prime will color some other object for the topologists to discover. I was doing a lot of finger counting, couldn't do seven, required two hands/.
Sand box trading pits do this, keep a running encoding of S to L while maintaining bound variance at the pit boss. Sandbox runs a low enough Markov to be separable and no more, the second level up. But we can show quasi stability via the three principles, free entry/exit, round robin access to the bidding queues and bound market making risk. Quasi stable because it will step down incrementally without queue collapse, adiabatic, one node change at a time with round robin robin fair peeking. Sandboxers know this quite well. Most of the major on line exchanges get this problem and can be quite stable.
So, given constant rates in the coloring problem, we can algorithmicly trim the factorial tree ex ante, this implies constant N. We should be able to write an algorithm to do that for any set of prime counters. Counters no sequentially prime will color some other object for the topologists to discover. I was doing a lot of finger counting, couldn't do seven, required two hands/.
435 Congressional districts, a constant
What does introducing a constant into the economy mean? Not sure, but here is another interesting fact.
50,000 car deaths was out limit. 55000 viet soldiers dead, 60,000 fewer people die in recession. 55,000 Corona deaths, 60000 fewer deaths in a recession..
At some number we put our foot down, or do we? Why would culture acquire a constant? Is it the number of complaints a Congress critter can mange? Is it related to the bandwidth of the office?
Consider AOC, quite deranged of late. Her bandwidth is consumed by her mom and pops wanting some cash. It gets widespread, they hear about trillions in misspent defense money and flood their system. But N,, it is growing still. AOC has the 'I am not taking this any more".
Then they get calls enormous about why the super wealthy get the inside deal on debt slinging. At some point we get a significant groups back there with the rebellion fever down. It is amorphous, muddy brown, and the two party system spend time underneath the sewage level back there.
It is not a rebellion, actually, just a sudden acceptance to have the meeting of the elders. Johnson,Nixon; great boneheads of all time, leading to the meeting of the elders, or in Nixon's case, drinks and a gold repricing at the White House.
The solution, of course, the House needs to buy off the state capitals, as the Constitution implicitly specifies. Get the government out of the ear mark business. What these Congress critters are hearing mostly is the unfairness and bad policy of the ear mark business, get out of it. The House member then knows that much of those calls are bad Senate and should be referred back to the state capital where they are hedged. Abstract tree, constrained channel needs encoder, and this is the proper mechanism. The tree trunk is rounded, complaints then become equally independent events for all three parties. Pay off the state capitals, pay the price of the Constitution and quit adding states if it worries you. For economists we are adjusting the government value chain to make inventory stable.
The House applies energy from the taxpayer. The energy becomes the value chain hedge, the Senator is free to make government work without being pestered by the state capital and their interest groups. Makes it quite a bit more efficient, politicians getting paid for being a bit smarter and a bit more honest.
50,000 car deaths was out limit. 55000 viet soldiers dead, 60,000 fewer people die in recession. 55,000 Corona deaths, 60000 fewer deaths in a recession..
At some number we put our foot down, or do we? Why would culture acquire a constant? Is it the number of complaints a Congress critter can mange? Is it related to the bandwidth of the office?
Consider AOC, quite deranged of late. Her bandwidth is consumed by her mom and pops wanting some cash. It gets widespread, they hear about trillions in misspent defense money and flood their system. But N,, it is growing still. AOC has the 'I am not taking this any more".
Then they get calls enormous about why the super wealthy get the inside deal on debt slinging. At some point we get a significant groups back there with the rebellion fever down. It is amorphous, muddy brown, and the two party system spend time underneath the sewage level back there.
It is not a rebellion, actually, just a sudden acceptance to have the meeting of the elders. Johnson,Nixon; great boneheads of all time, leading to the meeting of the elders, or in Nixon's case, drinks and a gold repricing at the White House.
The solution, of course, the House needs to buy off the state capitals, as the Constitution implicitly specifies. Get the government out of the ear mark business. What these Congress critters are hearing mostly is the unfairness and bad policy of the ear mark business, get out of it. The House member then knows that much of those calls are bad Senate and should be referred back to the state capital where they are hedged. Abstract tree, constrained channel needs encoder, and this is the proper mechanism. The tree trunk is rounded, complaints then become equally independent events for all three parties. Pay off the state capitals, pay the price of the Constitution and quit adding states if it worries you. For economists we are adjusting the government value chain to make inventory stable.
The House applies energy from the taxpayer. The energy becomes the value chain hedge, the Senator is free to make government work without being pestered by the state capital and their interest groups. Makes it quite a bit more efficient, politicians getting paid for being a bit smarter and a bit more honest.
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