Thursday, June 27, 2019

With the complete support of the Saudis

‘YOU WILL BURN’ 
Sick ISIS supporters threaten to bomb London and New York and attack a plane in chilling terror posters

So, New Yorkers have this problem.

If DaBlowsio does not want to have his city blown, then DaBlowsio had to bomb the Saudis.  How does DaBlowsio attack the threat when our military is in cahoots, selling the Saudis weapons and protecting them from DaBlowio attacks?   First DaBlowsio has to attack our military as they are treasonous assholes. The easiest method to disable the US military and protect ourselves is to cut their funding.

This is a catch 22, like the Dems never getting medical care right and always melting ice over the matter. Repubs charge us huge dollars for defense, then Rick Scott has a bunch of high schoolers killed. What is the point? Why don't the Republicans just kill high schoolers directly without all the fakes, that is how Mexico does it.

1.5 seems to be a lower bound

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. joined JPMorgan Chase & Co. in pulling down its forecasts for U.S. Treasury yields, incorporating expectations for a prolonged hit from the U.S.-China trade war, along with the dovish shift by key central banks.
Goldman’s strategists slashed their year-end 10-year U.S. yield call to 1.75% -- matching JPMorgan’s updated prediction from May 31. That’s down from Goldman’s 2.80% projection reiterated last Sunday. Goldman also cut its yield forecasts for Japan, the euro region and other developed nations.
If we judge by the last recession cycle, it seems the ten year hits a bound at 1.5.  One would expect that bound to be reached this recession.  So a call of 1.75 is simply a recognition that the Fed called the next recession, in advance.

Health care has been the only Dem issue for forty years

Health care, immigration top issues at Democrats’ 1st debate

This is not in a vacuum, folks. The volatility costs of getting through the fraud on this is approaching trillions, with nothing to show except melted ice.  Dems cannot get this right, they will continually melt ice over the issue, making a mockery of the so called carbon tax.

Transaction costs vs gains

World shares rise on optimism around Trump-Xi meeting
That would be step one.

That would be step two.

G-20 preview: Facing faltering economies, Trump and Xi likely to agree to a cease-fire of trade war

Here, they just give up.
At some point traders should sit this out as the transaction costs of being manipulated exceed any gains available.

Pension stampede meets housing market meets homeless

Hundreds of city, county workers earned more than $500,000 last year in California
Cashing out vacation and sick time at career's end — even when public employees are fired for cause — can send their compensation skyrocketing.

Not if they escape the state:

Southern California homebuyers balk as sales drop for 10th straight month

But who wants to stick around SoCal:

LA city councilman calls on state to match LA’s $1.2 billion housing fund
Councilman Mitch O' Farrell also said the federal government needs to participate in finding solutions to the problem. O'Farrell said federal funding for homeless issues decreased from $55 million a year in 2008 to $30 million in 2012, when the crisis was expanding.

 So, how does all this work?   I have no clue, this is California government chaos.

Wednesday, June 26, 2019

The Fed failed

A postmortem of the Fed's failed attempt to normalize


A major factor pushing the Fed to lower rates has been the message from financial markets, which moved rates lower before the Fed’s March halt and even more aggressively before the June meeting.

The yield on the 2-Year Treasury, an important indicator of expectations of Fed policy, fell from a peak of 2.89 percent in November 2018 to 1.86 percent before the FOMC June meeting.

Methodology for calculating future expectations in current bond yieldssuggests markets now expect future short-term rates to fall below 1.50 percent. The financial markets have been more accurate than the Fed at projecting future interest rate movements.

Five bathrooms vs two

Transgender county residents might not need IDs to use bathrooms they choose

Residents would be able to use restrooms and dressing rooms based on their gender identities under a proposal before the Cook County Board.

I think we are up to five genders, not including the NRA castratti.  A plumbers dream come true.

ACA is no longer enforceable

A federal appeals court has questioned whether the House and Democrat-led states can defend the 2010 health care law in a legal fight that threatens the landmark legislation — a sign the law could face strong headwinds in its latest test in the federal courts.The House and states had jumped to intervene in the lawsuit after a federal judge in Texas ruled the entire law should fall without the so-called individual mandate, including popular provisions preventing insurance companies from denying coverage or charging more because of pre-existing conditions.Officials in Texas and other conservative states filed a lawsuit to strike down the entire law because Congress eliminated the penalty for not having individual health insurance as part of a 2017 tax overhaul. The Justice Department, which partially defended the law at first, now declines to do so.
As part of the tax over haul, Trump dumped the Obamacare insurance penalty. So we have a regulation to buy insurances with no penalty attached.  What happens if the Federales catch me without my ACA card? Nothing, they have no penalty. They could arrest me, and I wait for trial, lose and the judge lets me go, there is no penalty implied. 

So, I am free to keep a medical savings account, or buy a plan with a huge deductable. The Federales are limited to regulating the insurance companies, but Trump doesn't care, he will ignore the whole mess. Besides, Trump is allowing a lot of waivers for all different forms of insurance with less tax.

In other words, ACA is basically dead except for the Medicaid expansion. The whole ten year enterprise a huge volatility, pure waste.  We can write this off in the MMT, add another few trillion in defaults for bonehead Nancy Pelosi.  We can write off another fiasco perpetuated by the 'This time is different' crowd, Delong and that crew owe us a lot of money for fraud.  In fact, this makes 20 years of messing with this stuff, and the Dems want to do another twenty years of mess, yielding noting but a medicaid expansion.

The Dems now are telling us, the same people who suffered the mess, to suffer it again!  But it is a loser, Trump won on ACA and Trump will simply remind everyone that same Dems are at it again. Stupid is as stupid does.

Verdict is in

The short version: Elizabeth Warren treaded water, Cory Booker and Julian Castro found their grooves, Bill de Blasio vented his anger and may have created some buzz, Beto O’Rourke had a terrible night, and everybody else on the bottom stayed on the bottom.
At least we dumped Beto.

Next we want to cross off Kamala, she is a real danger as most Americans hate California and its cartels.  The more we hear from Kamala, the higher goes the  Trump ratings. Get her off the screen.

You have little to talk about

Senate Passes $4.6B Border Aid Measure; Pelosi Seeks Talks

Talk about what? The budget is not going to be finished on time, we will get a continuing resolution. Until we reach that point, I suggest a vacation for everyone, get out of town.