Monday, October 14, 2013

Nice Phillips curve


This curve obeys the maxim, less inflation, less employment. Well, inflation is driven by  shortages, labor included, so low inflation implies fewer workers.
But  this relationship, if measured over a very long period, will settle on one unemployment rate, the natural rate. So that rate is targeted.

This chart changes, it changes its shape over periods of eight years, and you can see this set of years was cherry picked, which is fine, as they are a linear sequence.

Anyway,  something else I stayed away from and am now looking at. For example, we know that employment goes reasonably with stock prices. But the relationship changes.  What the two are doing now, is different then what the two were doing eight years ago; but in each period the correlation was high. That is why business cycle dating got popular, each of these models could reset their parameters, and start working again.

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