Council of Economic Advisors and Weekly Indicators

ECONOMIC ACTIVITY DURING THE GOVERNMENT SHUTDOWN AND DEBT LIMIT BRINKSMANSHIP

The CEA keeps a weekly economic index, and claim this index shows a 120,000 job loss dues to the shutdown. How true?

They assume an event stimulus in October, then derive predictions on outcomes based on the accuracy of their indicators in the past. Sure enough, something in October happened that was slightly out of the normal and predicts a bad result. Any ideas on what that could be?

What is the complete set of abnormal events in early Oct? The brinkmanship, and Obamacare, and a backlog of unemployment claims from California. Oh yes, the nomination of Bubbles. My best guess is that California, Obamacare and brinkmanship split the unemployment spike. Most of the confidence indices crashed because the authors of this report scared the shit out of us.  There is not much there.

Otherwise, California had peaked three months ago, their dreams of two quarters of sanity shattered by the Hoover rebellion.  Unemployment here inching up, on a trend. Bubbles drove the SP500 thru a roof of orgasmic frenzy; like a teenage boys on their first trip to the stripper joint. The 30 Hoovers reving up their discretionary spending plans, California has to hunker down. Obamacare is looking like a medium term multiplier less than one, debt projections going up and expected costs of past borrowing will balloon in the budget.

We are approaching White Noise, we will be the first known biological intelligence to attempt it.