Looking at Macro Advisors GDP report again

The chart on the right purports to show losses due to less government in DC, from Macro Advisers. The chart on the left is the real growth rate (blue), the percentage government per GDP (red), and the price of oil (green). The percent of federal spending is scaled to match the real growth rate, but the flat peak on the red is 25% of GDP for federal share of spending.

I claim government spending was flat from quarter 1, 2009 until quarter one 2012.   Yet growth dropped off in mid 2011, mainly with the price of oil. Macro Advisers claim that a quarter of the GDP drop, or about .25 of GDP is due to sequester.  No way does that flat line of revenue in anyway generate enough trend to identify a .25 drop in GDP. Note the rise in growth after the dip, until 2012? That rise in growth coincided with a drop in federal spending from 25% of GDP to near 23% of GDP. That is a multiplier way less than one, that is the Federal Government dumping some real loss making projects. Growth held up with declining spending up until the tax change.

Austerity does indeed pay, multiplies are indeed less than one, and Macro Advisers is infected with confirmation bias. The Federal government has been using oil inefficiently, so increases n federal spending cause economic downturns.