I stole this chart. Is this market going to crash? I suspect not, but it will become bear. I still have a hard time imagining a crash when we already are stuck in the mud. The only sudden crash I see would be a seriously underestimated Obamacare cost. But the market should have priced in a 1% GDP cost of Obamacare by now. So what will the real cost turn out to be? The actual cost of Medicaid expansion is still around 1.5%, from the numbers I have gathered. But that could go as high as 2.5% I am sure. So there is an uncertainty of about 1%, enough to cause a crash? I dunno.
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