What inflation index to bond vigilantes watch?

This one

Investors and the Forex market have made the connection between nominal and real oil prices in America, and bond prices drop as long as the nominal and real prices remain in lockstep. Money will follow investment opportunities that can separate nominal and real oil prices.

Ten year TIPS will expect nominal 2% inflation because inflation is not determined by government action, it is out of the hands of fiscal or monetary policy. Inflation remains low because constrained oil supplies continue keep inflation restrained.