Erratic oil flows prior to the crash

Let your eye wander across the  US oil import chart. the 4 week average. Where does volatility appear? In the first two quarters of 2008.  Variance in flow drives up price, leading to the crash.  But the money velocity chart tells us that the American consumer had begun slowing down in the second half of 2007, sooner than the Baltic dry, so trade fell after the American slow down.

The very high volatility at the crash?  Our oil quota changed  in the international oil trade somewhere  in July 2008, our position as semi-monopoly buyer of large oil was displaced somewhat.  But our supply lines are narrowly defined to take gains from that semi-monopoly position, so flexible fuel supplies were not working with the new quota, shortages appearing.  The economy will contract to prevent zero inventories of essential goods.