Sunday, November 7, 2010

Krugman finds evidence that housing did not cause the crash

In a discussion of Texas:
I’d also add that the Texas economy has not, in fact, performed all that well. Here’s a comparison of the second and third most populous states
Then:
What is true is that Texas was spared the worst of the housing crisis — thanks to unusually strict regulation.
I always thought this was the final nail, the fact that the downturn was working through  non-house-bubble areas.

But, if not housing, then if oil? how is Texas performing on oil  Handy chart:

Date Value of Crude Oil Produced
(Millions)
Value of Natural Gas Produced
(Millions)
Active Oil & Gas Drilling Rigs Gasoline
(Millions of Taxed Gallons)

Median Sales Price Existing Single Family Homes

2006 $21,622.1 $18,858.5 514 968.7
$146,650

2007 $30,651.8 $24,201.1 549 975.8
$145,792

2008 $18,417.4 $11,304.6 582 993.0
$144,767

2009 $14,183.1 $8,246.1 611 996.6
$146,214


Housing passed through without too much trouble, and Texas foreclosures below the national average.  But they went through boom and bust in oil.

Whodunnit? Peak oil.

But...if oil is really that short then why isn't Texas recovering? Because, the economy drops a rung, dropping further than a smooth adjustment would require. (See last post)As US energy efficiency increases, the economy will demand more energy.

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