Monday, January 3, 2011

Elliot waves are real then

The wave principle posits that collective investor psychology (or crowd psychology) moves from optimism to pessimism and back again in a natural sequence. These swings create patterns, as evidenced in the price movements of a market at every degree of trend.
Elliott's model says that market prices alternate between five waves and three waves at all degrees of trend, as the illustration shows. Within the dominant trend, waves 1, 3, and 5 are "motive" waves, and each motive wave itself subdivides in five waves. Waves 2 and 4 are "corrective" waves, and subdivide in three waves. In a bear market the dominant trend is downward, so the pattern is reversed—five waves down and three up. Motive waves always move with the trend, while corrective waves move against it.
Wiki

The generalized theory would have an Elliot wave as a state change process between two different spontaneous orders (to force Hayek into agreement). We get them by finding shortest lattice paths through two distribution networks. These paths are the smallest number of steps to expansion or contraction of some independent sector economy.

I am reading up on Stanley and the generalized Fibonacci tree which gives up nice sets of bounding functions.  He is on my entropy page.

A bubble, for example. The housing bubble around here we would model as a spiral change in inventory, likely emanating from Silicon Valley and swing out, tracing the perimeter of the geographical bubble, in time and space, by tracing a path(s) across one of a Stanley lattice. We see the same thing in the potential default pattern in the EuroZone.  Approaching the black hole in space.

Housing, built upon the lattice of the freeway system around the US West, it would be an obvious candidate to see the wave idea unfold over the years. The pattern of each growth (or contract) increment  being the simple marketing technique of partition.  After a while the market is 'thin' in the sens that it's a long rank jump from the center, and the next housing partition becomes sparse.

No comments: