Wednesday, August 3, 2011

Not quite Cullen Roach

“The National Debt is the amount of money to the penny that the federal government has created since it began creating dollars. It includes all of the dollars held by the public plus all of the dollars held by foreign companies that have done business with the U.S. There is no taking it back. Paying off the National Debt is impossible and it makes no logical sense to think of the National Debt in the way we have been taught.” Cullen Roche

In central banking, over long periods, the net amount of money created are the losses of the Fed minus the profits of the Fed. That is the amount of free money floating around. No?

But contraction cycles are more often changes due to positive advances in technology, thus not symmetric. In a simple model the Fed trades safe bonds for cash during the contraction. But later the Fed does not have access to buy risky assets and does not participate in the expansion. it doesn't buy equities.

The shadow bankers and private bankers have no such restriction and can hold equities during the expansion. Private bankers supposedly track the real economy. Central bankers have a major customer, the government. There terms of trade are highly skewed and they are forced into incoherent positions regarding the real economy. The central bankers lose business to private bankers  during technology advancement

We should refer to George Selgin about what happens in a free banking system during productivity growth.  But  the economic bandwidth expands, higher retail delivery rates and smaller delivery quants.  I would think banks in general tend to be behind the technology curve during rapid transition, losing money, causing inflation. But the new technology does more with less banking, it raises productivity, so it is deflationary.  On the margin, is it more inflationary or defationary? Dunno, talk to Selgin.

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