California still crashing

I look at the Ceridian Index, regional view. Our state seems to have been in continual downturn for six months. There is a small Christmas effect, but the trend remains downward. Gas prices are inching up, I think California is coming out badly in the Fiscal Cliff deal. This is mainly California oligarchal politics ruining the economy.

San Jose Light Rail: An epic disaster

SAN JOSE, Calif. -- A $2 billion light-rail system built to serve San Jose and some surrounding cities in Silicon Valley has become among the least efficient in the country and suffers from low ridership and high operating costs.
As the Valley Transportation Authority rail line marked 25 years of service this month, the San Jose Mercury News reported Thursday that less than 1 percent of all Santa Clara County residents ride the trains daily and taxpayers subsidize 85 percent of the service, the second worst rate in the nation.
Critics are calling the system a failure, and even some optimistic supporters say it has not lived up to expectations. AP

Read more here: http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/12/27/3114493/silicon-valleys-light-rail-among.html#storylink=cpy

Norman Mineta, wherever he is, has inflicted a disaster upon San Jose.

Menzie Chen and multipliers

Your ergodic error, the same as always, getting nominal growth and real growth mixed up.

If we are ergodic in time, we optimize over fixed time periods and we use real growth, which may be negative or positive.

If we optimize the set of containers, we use nominal growth which is a positive definite variable.

Construct the stimulus theory in one frame or the other, not both.  If you are using time ergodicity, then you should have both negative and positive stimulus, show that in your work.  Explain how a time ergodic optimizer operates when the expected future real growth is negative.

Are we there yet?

Better unemployment stats, courtesey BLS:

Table B.  States with statistically significant unemployment rate changes
  from October 2012 to November 2012, seasonally adjusted
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------
                                  |          Rate         |
                                  |-----------|-----------| Over-the-month
               State              |  October  |  November |    change(p)
                                  |    2012   |   2012(p) |
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------
  Alabama ........................|     8.1   |     7.5   |      -0.6
  Alaska .........................|     7.1   |     6.8   |       -.3
  California .....................|    10.1   |     9.8   |       -.3
  Florida ........................|     8.5   |     8.1   |       -.4
  Georgia ........................|     8.7   |     8.5   |       -.2
  Hawaii .........................|     5.5   |     5.3   |       -.2
  Idaho ..........................|     7.0   |     6.8   |       -.2
  Iowa ...........................|     5.1   |     4.9   |       -.2
  Kansas .........................|     5.7   |     5.4   |       -.3
  Louisiana ......................|     6.6   |     5.8   |       -.8
  Minnesota ......................|     5.9   |     5.7   |       -.2
  Mississippi ....................|     9.0   |     8.5   |       -.5
  Nebraska .......................|     3.8   |     3.7   |       -.1
  Nevada .........................|    11.5   |    10.8   |       -.7
  New York .......................|     8.7   |     8.3   |       -.4
  North Carolina .................|     9.3   |     9.1   |       -.2
  Pennsylvania ...................|     8.1   |     7.8   |       -.3
  Tennessee ......................|     8.2   |     7.6   |       -.6
  Texas ..........................|     6.6   |     6.2   |       -.4
  Vermont ........................|     5.5   |     5.2   |       -.3
  Virginia .......................|     5.7   |     5.6   |       -.1
  Washington .....................|     8.2   |     7.8   |       -.4
  Wisconsin ......................|     6.9   |     6.7   |       -.2
  -------------------------------------------------------------------------

What does this mean? I am not an expert on unemployment rates, so how much of this is demographic and how much is stable real growth, is an uncertain question for me.

What about stable oil prices? That looks good, so far, when oil prices quit their periodicity then we know the supplier and demanders have agreed on stable distribution, and that is real growth. I expect much of the recent good news attributed to new oil supplies and stable oil deliveries.

What about fiscal multipliers? I have believed in multipliers less than one from DC, either banking or government. So, the fiscal cliff would be viewed as a multiplier greater than one, raising prices for shoddy Senate goods and shutting downs Ben's money pumper. As we approach fiscal cliff, I expect the economy to perform better. But how soon would we see this affect? Sooner than I expected, maybe. Much of the Christmas growth might be attributed to money leaving the bull bond market.

In summary: Get slightly optimistic, hope for the largest fiscal cliff we can get, and watch energy efficient machine technology.  But especially watch what happens in Jan, 2013 in DC; that is regime change month, the bond vigilantes have arrived.

Oakland, not yet evolved enough for self government

Oakland, California, the fifth-most crime ridden city in America, faced a $32 million budget deficit last year. It closed the gap by dismissing a fourth of its police force, more than 200 officers. Untouched was the $17.3 million that the city pays to stage 10 games a season for the National Football League’s Oakland Raiders and to host Major League Baseball’s Athletics in the O.co Coliseum. The funds cover debt financing and operations and are supplemented by $13.3 million from surrounding Alameda County, based on data compiled by Bloomberg from public records. Bloomberg

The 30 year bull bond market is done for

That market was a bet that our beloved government would drive the economy into negative growth, and has been a correct bet for 30 years.  It worked simply, the bond market placed its bet along the treasury curve and waited.  Sure enough, the US Snate would take the money, and deliver shoddy products. Bond prices rise as the real growth slows. So the bond market took gains.  The only time the bond market lost this trade was about four years of the Clinton administration when Bubba managed to get government multipliers above one.

What has happened since then?  Well, the upper income braket, which has been making this trade, was recently hired by the Senate to act as the purchasing agent for senatorial products, they now purchase US Senate programs after having bet on shoddy products from the Senate for 30 years.  The bond vigilantes are coming to Washington, how about that!

Why does this work?  Because the economy always shows positive nominal growth, and the real growth is not realized until a contraction. This is an artifact of the Shannon economy, the Shannon equilibrium is always positive definite, even when real growth is negative.  Take a look at real growth over the last 30 years.  Take the 30 year nominal rate today, subtract from  it the 30 year nominal rate of 1980 and get something like -2%, the real growth since 1980; and a sure bet.

What is causing this negative growth?  No democracy in the Senate.  Hence we have nothing but spectral interference between California and DC.  Consider the latest income tax hikes, they were queued up, first California then DC raised them.  That quick sequence is a sing of spectral intererence.

Now the bond vigilantes are in charge of the entire government chain, they are in Michigan, Chicago, all over California and will be flying into DC next month.  Welcome to regime change.

My hometown is a welfare state

Anything that President Barack Obama and Congress do to avert a looming financial crisis will have a profound effect on the central San Joaquin Valley. Last year, the federal government sent close to $12 billion to Fresno, Tulare, Kings and Madera counties in the form of, among other things, Social Security payments, Medicare, food stamps and unemployment insurance. In Fresno County, those government benefits accounted for about 23% of all personal income last year. In Tulare County, it was 24%; Madera County, 22%; and Kings County, 19% Read more here: http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/12/15/3103093/fiscal-cliff-looms-over-the-valley.html#storylink=cpy

Fresno also has the least Senate representation in the USA, with the exception of DC residents. In Fresno the two dingbat ambassadors to the DC oligarch almost never bother with us.

Can Japan maintain its fiat?

In simple terms, Abe’s plan is to flood the economy with cash, either from government coffers or the Bank of Japan (BOJ), to boost growth. The LDP advocates a plan to lavish a staggering $2.4 trillion on public-works programs over the next decade — a gargantuan stimulus equivalent to 40% of the country’s GDP. And where will Abe find the money to pay for all of that construction? The government itself, already posting huge deficits, doesn’t have the resources. So Abe figures he can extract the cash from the supposedly independent Bank of Japan.

Read more: http://business.time.com/2012/12/17/will-japans-new-prime-minister-start-a-debt-crisis/#ixzz2FLLSkOMs

Abe is guaranteeing a negative real growth rate for some period, a sure bet for bond investors. But he gets into the musical chairs game, when should bondholders exit and avoid the debt crisis. Foreign holders of Japanese debt can use it for exchange as long as Japanese real growth is negative  (bonds rise in price). But Japan cannot guarantee real negative growth forever, eventually Japanese disappear, not a pretty sight.

Republican Communist party Watch

House Speaker John A. Boehner has offered to push any fight over the federal debt limit off for a year, a concession that would deprive Republicans of leverage in the budget battle but is breathing new life into stalled talks over the year-end “fiscal cliff.” Boehner is a coward

Let the war begin

LOS ANGELES, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Wall Street bondholders have thrown down the gauntlet to America's biggest public pension fund, demanding similar rights as creditors in bankrupt San Bernardino, California - and they say they could take the fight all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court. A group of bondholders and bond insurers on Monday filed a 114-page objection to arguments by the California Public Employees' Retirement System (Calpers) that it should enjoy its historical primacy as a municipal bankruptcy creditor. Reuters

San Bernardino is just the warm up, the real battle is LA and its bankruptcy next year.

Ray Lahood threatens nation with private enterprise!

A House committee hearing Thursday at which Republicans vowed to use their majority to block new federal funding for California’s bullet-train train wreck produced this astounding passage in The Washington Post: “We’re not giving up on high-speed rail,” Transportation Secretary Ray LaHood testified before a congressional committee. “The president will include funding in his budget. I think we’ll get there with public money, but in the absence of that we’ll get there with private money.” Chris Reed spots this doozy

Good grief, Ray, read your own friggin press once in a while and you will discover just how stupid you are.

Just a few murders

With three weeks left in 2012, Stockton has already reached an all-time high for homicides – 68 so far, 10 more than the previous record last year. The sad saga of bloody, financially struggling Stockton should serve as a cautionary tale for other financially beleaguered cities in California. Good fiscal management isn't some esoteric goal. It is essential to the health and safety of real people. Read more here: http://www.sacbee.com/2012/12/06/5034470/editorial-a-bankrupt-stockton.html#storylink=cpy

If we get through this with 75 murders a year in Stockton, that will be OK. I mean, 58 killed last year, and for a mere 10 more killed Stockton gets to dump 25% of the cops.

Oil prices holding steady

Oil is not spiking in spite of a good Christmas sales and election spending. Good news, and Citigroup attributes the calmness to a slumping China. I still expect a California contraction next year as 7-8 new tax hikes hit the middle class, but the Eastern seaboard should survive the tax hikes much better.

Obama wants another huge debt burden for the middle class

No 'Drama' Obama--Wants to Raise 'Debt Limit Without Drama or Delay'

Quietly, and without fanfare; our president is planning an assault on the American middle class. For you Californians here is the score. The California middle class will lose 3% of its wealth, permanently, just to pay off Obama 6 trillion dollar debt binge. All total, the government in DC and the government in Sacramento have conspired to take another 5% of middle class wealth next year.

Detroit going belly up

President Barack Obama should step in and help. City Council member JoAnn Watson said Tuesday the citizens support of Obama in last month's election was enough reason for the president to bailout the struggling the city. (Click the video player to listen) Fox

Detroit is a case where multipliers are much less than one

I conclude that Windows Internet Explorer sucks

I try the slider bar to move a page display up or down. Explorer reports that some web site is not responding. But, hey, I am not moving web sites and could care less if it responds, I am moving pixels on the damn screen, and I know the pixels are available for moving, I can see them, spit on them, so Explorer move the damn pixels and quit telling me stories about some unresponsive web site.

While I am blogging

Has anyone found any Democrats in California willing to fight for our ten Senate seats? You mean all Democrats are oligarchal cowards? Say it isn't so!

Grover Norquist, welfare bum

In a 2011 interview with The Washington Post editorial board, Norquist appeared to suggest that not renewing tax cuts doesn’t constitute a violation of the pledge. Here’s how it was written, from July 2011: In other words, according to Mr. Norquist’s interpretation of the Americans for Tax Reform pledge, lawmakers have the technical leeway to bring in as much as $4 trillion in new tax revenue — the cost of extending President George W. Bush’s tax cuts for another decade — without being accused of breaking their promise. “Not continuing a tax cut is not technically a tax increase,” Mr. Norquist told us. So it doesn’t violate the pledge? “We

What is going on? Norquist and his friends are big on defense welfare, they live on government handouts from the defense industry, they are welfare bums, as are most Republicans.

So, CA hispanics, what say we secede and join Mexico?

Mexican boom While California’s economy is in the doldrums with 10.1 percent unemployment, Mexico’s economy is booming with only 5.0 percent unemployment. The Mexican business climate is benefiting from strong production growth and increasing job opportunities. More than 1.4 million Mexicans — including about 300,000 children born in the United States — returned to Mexico from the United States between 2005 and 2010. Net immigration to the U.S. dropped to zero since 2008, while American immigration to Mexico is thriving. UCLA predicts that California’s employment growth will average less than 2 percent for the next three years. The Economist magazine expects the Mexican boom to continue; since manufacturing costs are more competitive in Mexico than in China: “Mexico is already the world’s biggest exporter of flat-screen televisions, BlackBerrys and fridge-freezers, and is climbing up the rankings in cars, aerospace and more. On present trends, by 2018 America will import more from Mexico than from any other country. “Made in China” is giving way to ‘Hecho en México’.” A key competitive factor, according to accounting research firm KPMG, is Mexico’s #1 international ranking as the best place to do business from a tax burden point of view. Cal Watch

So all you deranged CA hispanics, how is it that Mexico runs their nation better than California? If Mexico is doing so good, then why aren't you all demanding CA independence from DC. After all, they have more democracy in Mexico, a better economy and smarter politicians. Wassa matter? Independence for California scare you?

Another CA city going under?

SAN BERNARDINO (CBSLA.com) —  The city attorney of San Bernardino is under scrutiny for telling residents to “lock their doors and load their guns” during a city council meeting.

The official explained that because the city is bankrupt and slashing public safety budgets people will need to start protecting themselves.

City Attorney Jim Penman said he doesn’t regret what he said.

“You should say what you mean and mean what you say,” Penman said.

The city attorney said approximately 150 residents came to a council meeting to voice their concerns about recent crimes in the area, including the murder of an elderly woman last week.

“You could tell the swell of frustration was coming over a lot of folks. They did not feel like they could get an officer out as quickly to some of the quality-of-life issues that they were dealing with as they would have preferred,” said City Councilwoman Wendy McCommack, who organized the meeting and was present that night. http://losangeles.cbslocal.com/2012/11/30/city-attorney-tells-san-bernardino-residents-to-lock-their-doors-load-their-guns-because-of-police-downsizing/

Compton, now this. The bankrupt creature is approaching LA for the kill.

Fake growth for election purposes

I knew the recent growth spurge was simply government moving forward purchases for election bribes. Zero Hedge shows us the numbers.

So what drove "growth" in Q3? Nothing short of the most hollow and worst components of GDP: Government Spending, which soared to 0.67% of the annualized number, the first positive print in years, and of course, Inventories, which were responsible for 30% of the headline number.

Most of us knew that Obama used government debt to win the election, oligarchs pull this crap and fake economists push the lie with happy talk during the election. Now watch us pay for that spending with a growth rate near zero.

This time is different

Fitch cut its long-term rating for Argentina to "CC" from "B," a downgrade of five notches, and cut its short-term rating to "C" from "B". A rating of "C" is one step above default, AP reported.

US judge Thomas Griesa of Manhattan federal court last week ordered Argentina to set aside $1.3bn for certain investors in its bonds by December 15, even as Argentina pursues appeals. Telegraph

Argentina does fiscal management by default. It works, but is a little inefficient.

Islamic Belt Bomber assumes dictatorial powers in Egypt

The Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt has called for a mass demonstration in Cairo this week to show support for the embattled President, Mohamed Morsi, who is facing widespread protests over his controversial decree granting him extensive new powers.INDY

Boys are just out of Africa, not yet adapted to real democracy

Faking it with Felix

Felix tells whoppers today:

The fiscal cliff has already found at least one victim, the WSJ reports: “half of the nation’s 40 biggest publicly traded corporate spenders have announced plans to curtail capital expenditures this year or next”. Felix the Fake 

Not quite so, and the WSJ article he refers to disagrees. Corporate earning are down, we just had the termination of the tech bubble, Google, Apple, and Facebook all facing much lower earnings. Exports are down, as the article referenced shows. The minor down turn we are experiencing is only modestly related to Congressional fiscal cliffing. Congressional riscal cliffing is most likely related to the finally acknowledged problem that multipliers are less than 1.0. Growth rates way below 2%, and the bond market is not sure that Congress can go one more round of borrowings without killing off the middle class. Felix failed to get the memo, mthe Romer multipliers greater than one story is false, bogus research. Felix, pay attention. I suggest you read Mark Thoma's blog, he follows the developing research.

Cal news today

Mainly trying to get California data as I think the state has contracted. Mainly two things, the tech earning are down, the current tech bubble seems to be over. The pension monster is hitting LA sooner than we expected, and we have three tax hikes to worry, state, fed, and a global warming fee, courtesy of Jerry Brown. I will try to get early data and make a prediction before the taxes really hit us. The LAO office in California is saying things look rosy, but they ignore agglomoration effe3cts as in:

Uncertainty Surrounding Federal Fiscal Policy. There is great uncertainty surrounding the federal “fiscal cliff,” the combination of tax increases and spending cuts set to take place under current federal law in 2013. These policies, if left unchanged, would have a significant effect on the economy and could result in economic conditions differing materially from our forecast. As discussed in Chapter 2, our forecast makes a number of assumptions regarding the federal fiscal cliff and its effect on the California economy. In general, we assume that federal policy makers take actions to avoid virtually all major near–term effects of the fiscal cliff. LAO

In other words, ignore the LAO report. Wages in California will re-agglomerate to avoid the sweet spot for double taxation, and I think this causes a contraction. If we get a bit of contraction then the LA bankruptcy moves up two years, happening in 2013. So, a bunch of stuff needs to be resolved.

Also, I noticed the unemployment rate in Fresno has risen a point, seasonally adjusted,  compared to a year ago. 

More California economic news

Ballooning Pension Costs What has rapidly perpetuated financial woes for the city is that payouts for retirement benefits have increased in recent years, thus crowding out services the city provides. A study released in early April by the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research found that, for the city of Los Angeles, “Pension costs increased from 8.5 percent of total city expenditures in 1999 to 13.7 percent in 2011.” For fiscal year 2011-12, estimated pension costs look to have climbed to “15.4 percent of city expenditures.” http://www.calwatchdog.com/2012/11/13/los-angeles-teeters-on-the-brink-of-bankruptcy-2/

Same in Fresno. Stockton is now a concentration camp, barbed wire everywhere. Oakland will need a federal takover of the police.

More numbers for you

Economic growth right now is likely less than 1% in the USA, after 6 Trillion in new federal debt! How does that translate into multipliers for the middle class? Do the numbers, assume a 100 million houshold middle class. Select an interest rate about 2% for the cost of money. My approximation tells me that middle class has lost about 2% of its wealth, permanently, because of federal debt service needs. Who is wiping out the middle class? DC politicians, no one else. Overall, since 1980, DC politicians have likely killed of 6% of America's middle class in a great genocidal purge, using federal debt. Perhaps a dissolution of the union is in order.

California getting the double income tax

Figure it out. The income tax in California is deductable on federal taxable income, but it does not cover all the pain. Your income x Your Ca tax is .15 * x, then your federal income tax is about x*.85*.2 Total tax? .32 * x Folks fail to understand why California pays a 25% premium on all federal services, the national party oligarchs use California to fund their goodies. Why does California get caught in these government nightmares? We do not have a fair senate vote, as simple as that. Oligarchs denying democrqacy for the specific necessity of stealing from California. Folks in Texas and Florida, watch out, you are next and the DC delusionals will drive your economies into the mud. California a Hispanic state? Our legislative house  speaker,John Perez,  a hispanic is purposefully allowing the theft of California by DC oligarchs. Now this:

While Latinos are gaining in political clout, they are also falling down the economic ladder, new Census numbers show. Latinos poverty rates climbed to 28 percent after the census reconfigured its algorithm to take into account medical costs and government programs. The Hispanic poverty level rose after the government took into account safety-net programs such as food stamps and housing, which have lower participation among immigrants and non-English speakers. Read more: http://latino.foxnews.com/latino/lifestyle/2012/11/14/latino-poverty-rate-climbs/#ixzz2CJgJntxA

Suggestion to Hispanics in California, you are fucking yourselves because your dumbshit Hispanic legislatures are being conned by the North East liberals.

Diversity among the states

While the overall financial health of U.S. states is modestly improving, there’s a growing disparity between strong and weak states, a report from asset manager Conning said. The firm’s semiannual “State of the States” report rates the fiscal strength of the states based on several indicators, including economic competitiveness, tax revenue growth, unemployment rate and change in home values. The asset manager for the insurance industry has published its report since 2007. “We are seeing a widening, or pulling apart, of our highest and lowest-rated states,” said Paul Mansour, a managing director at Conning and one of the report’s authors. RTE

Something that interests me. With a global brain, and 1 billion agents reporting to it there is going to be major shifts and re-arrangements of inventory. More later...

US to become an oil exporter

The U.S. will become the world's top producer of oil by 2020, a net exporter of oil around 2030 and nearly self-sufficient in energy by 2035, according to a new report from the International Energy Agency.

It's a bold set of predictions for a nation that currently imports some 20% of its energy needs.

That would pay off the debt.

Happenings in economics

The big story here is that a researcher at the Fed finally perfomed the analysis proving that we humans are not ergodic in time, hence much of economic research over the past 30 years is bogus.   Humans to not make changes using periodic schedules,  that assumption becomes invalid.  John Taylors interest rate rule is bogus, Scott Summers pushing on a sting is bogus, and Romer's multipliers greater than one is bogus.  All of this is now causing a useless effort at censoship among the DC infatuated economists, all the dreams of pulling levers and knobs in DC are in the trash.

Here is a consequence.  The 6T Obama borrowed, based on Romer's  fraud, will now cost each and every middle class family $1,000 in yearly interest payments, wiping out 1% of middle class wealth.  John Taylor's interest rate rule? Bogus.  During the period in which we used that rule, the debt ran up about 12T dollars.  Scott Summers pushing on a string idea? Bogus.

We are ergodic in -iLog(i) , when we are ergodic.   Stupid, liar economists.  30 years of them, mainly just going to DC and robbing the American middle class.

Central government to allocate energy?

Barack Obama may consider introducing a tax on carbon emissions to help cut the U.S. budget deficit after winning a second term as president, according to HSBC Holdings Plc. Get real, the the Federales are the most energy inefficient user of energy in the world. Having the DC Delusionals take energy from the private sector and re-allocate the energy is nothing short of an immediate economic crash of the worst proportions. Just look at all the economic problems we have in California with Jerry Brown's insatiable urge to re-allocate energy.

Yet another boring day

Nothing happening that hasn't already been reported.

Cal Choo Choo, still a disaster of graft and corruption

Anti-planner follows the catastrophe so we don't have to. Californians can blame Jim Costa, my house rep, probably the most idiotic politician in the nation.

Oakland incapable of self rule

Oakland's dysfunctional and self-absorbed leaders, who are more focused on their next moves instead of the city's welfare, have disappointed and let down so many residents on so many occasions that many residents, including me, regard the prospect of federal intervention as a last and best hope. Read more: http://www.sfgate.com/bayarea/johnson/article/Oakland-s-best-hope-federal-intervention-3961645.php#ixzz2AX3yo88P

The bottom line here is that the Oakland police department cannot function under the current elected leaders, crime is out of control; the worst in the nation they say. My diagnosis? The Oakland populace has not evolved to full self government capability. In fact, the issue here is going to be a federal takeover of the police. Not that Fresno is any better, mind you, but for the bay area of California, where the belief in oligarchial rule is rampant, one might expect them to try and do better.

Manufacturing activity in the Plains states contracted for the first time this year and expectations tumbled, according to a report released Thursday by the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City in Missouri.

WSJ I keep thinking that we are at bottom, can't get lower unless we want aggregate data in the mud of noise and unreadable. In other words. the US macro economy is as low as it can get, without getting lost. Hence it makes national recession predictions difficult. Is this the moment of national restructuring? The moment when the big colonial states like Texas and Florida say enough is enough, a pox on both parties?

Indiana Republicans: Stupid religious psychotics

The statement by Republican Senate candidate Richard Mourdock, linking God's will to pregnancy resulting from rape, has spurred strong reactions from campaigns across the country - including the presidential candidates.KHN

By the way, the same Republicans who piled up most of the 17 trillion in debt. Republicans simply have this stupid mass of voters called mqth challenged religious psychotics. Dems have similar problems. I wonder if this is about evolution going bad?

Multipliers less than one

That appears to be the case in Chicago, where for decades the Transit Authority has been misreporting the mileage for its bus routes, thereby boosting the amount of federal taxpayer subsidies by as much as $150 million -- and now, it seems, with Uncle Sam's blessing. Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/us/2012/10/25/chicago-transit-authority-overcharged-feds-150m-over-30-years-watchdog-group/?test=latestnews#ixzz2AL6PwnmF

No, not my hometown!

Moody's Investors Service will scrutinize the ratings of various types of bonds in 30 California cities. The agency also announced that it already had downgraded eight municipal pension obligation bonds. "California cities operate under more rigid revenue raising constraints than cities in many other parts of the country," Eric Hoffmann, who heads Moody's California local government ratings team, said in a statement. "Combined with steeply rising costs, these constraints mean that these cities will likely recover more slowly than their peers nationally, even if the state's economic recovery tracks the nation's." Cities under review include Danville, Santa Monica, Sacramento and Fresno. Moody's will examine an array of factors, including falling tax revenue and increased spending. Bakersfield Now

Wow, the progressives told me that Fresno governmnet had high multipliers.

Chinese growth recession

Premier-in-waiting Li Keqiang is reported to have said that he looks at bank loans, electricity consumption and rail freight as a reliable guide to the growth of the economy. With growth in electricity consumption and rail freight both decidedly lackluster, a simple average of those three measures points to an economy growing at about 4% year-over-year in August, down from 6% at the end of the second quarter and 10% at the end of 2011. China real time report

Growth plunge to 5%, sue, but much below that leaves out the ninland portions of China, where plenty of growth potential remains.

Google insiders sell before the plunge

Insider Monkey tracks this stuff, and Mish is reporting.  Google's main problem: Ads obn our mobile devices are not selling.  So before the revenue report, all the Google executives excercised their stock options, leaving the crash for the suckers the next day. Supposed to be illegal.

On Thursday, October 18, 2012, Internet giant Google’s reign as the world’s most impressive search engine slipped following an ill-timed mistake by financial printer RR Donnelley. The glitch included the premature posting of its third quarter earnings three hours early and a massive response from shareholders. The result was a downward nosedive in shares, a frantic trade halt ordered by Google executives, and a rapid scramble to recover what many have coined as “Google’s Earning Disaster.” Business Pundit

How do Google executives first sell on the bad news, then complain that the bad news was released too early?

The Constitution and our new Senate seats

Readers want to know,  how can California get its eight new Senate seats and maintain the state capital and legislature?  Simple, with the majority consent of the House.  Once the Senate issues 32 new Senate seats for the big states, then its job is done, according to the constitution.  However, what the large states do with their new Senators is subject to review by the House as interstate commerce is regulated.  California would get defacto recognition of its state capital by the House and continue as normal, except that it would elect a total of 10 senators.

The problem is mainly the oligarchs in Sacramento, not strong believers in democracy. 

My hometown in the news

Federal money for California's high-speed rail program could be jeopardized if the start of construction is significantly delayed in the San Joaquin Valley. And there are signs that might happen. Court records suggest the California High-Speed Rail Authority's schedule continues to slip for building the project's first stages in Madera and Fresno counties. In its legal battle arguing that an injunction to block construction is unnecessary, the authority said major work is unlikely to start before next fall. Originally, construction was expected to start last month. At the same time, a federal deadline linked to more than $3 billion in stimulus funds may be looming even sooner than previously advertised. Fresno Bee

The Choo Choo was an idea conceived in Chicago. But Chicago does not get federal train subsidies unless California gets them. Hence, the HSR was thrust upon California, where the legislature has been working for a generation to defeat big projects. This is the result you get when Dem Party Oligarchs substitute for the absence of our eight new Senators. California wants our Senators or we will refuse to make debt service payments.

Oil shortages hit California

Gasoline station owners in the Los Angeles area including Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST) are beginning to shut pumps because of supply shortages that have driven wholesale fuel prices to record highs. Costco’s outlet in Simi Valley, 40 miles (64 kilometers) northwest of Los Angeles, ran out of regular gasoline yesterday and was selling premium fuel at the price of regular, Jeff Cole, Costco’s vice president of gasoline, said by telephone. The company hasn’t been able to find enough unbranded summer-grade gasoline to keep its stations supplied, he said. Bloomberg

So, simple minded economists. We have six or nine regional economies with detailed economic data. Why do you bozos just report the aggregate for the whole USA. Doncha think it is a bias to assume we are all co-equlibriated economies? Do you really want to ignore accuracy?

California taking a dump

Ceridian has California underperforming for the past six months. The index has been reliable as a separator of regional performance. This is mainly about the impending bankruptcies of local governments. The business sector seems to be awaiting the bankruptcies to see what comes after.

Whoops on energy

–Oil Prices and Growth: Jeff Rubin looks how high oil prices could cap economic growth. “For most of the last century, cheap oil powered global economic growth. But in the last decade, the price of oil has quadrupled, and that shift will permanently shackle the growth potential of the world’s economies. The countries guzzling the most oil are taking the biggest hits to potential economic growth. That’s sobering news for the U.S., which consumes almost a fifth of the oil used in the world every day. Not long ago, when oil was $20 a barrel, the U.S. was the locomotive of global economic growth; the federal government was running budget surpluses; the jobless rate at the beginning of the last decade was at a 40-year low. Now, growth is stalled, the deficit is more than $1 trillion and almost 13 million Americans are unemployed.” From Bloomberg

Egad, federal bailout of state pensions?

Have no fear fellow colonialists, the web site is here:

No Pension Bailout

Wedging technology into transportation

At the head of the pack is San Francisco-based startup Uber, which allows users to order so-called “black-cars” — high-end sedans, limousines and SUVs — from their smartphone. The mobile application, which is available on Apple’s iPhone and Google Android devices, displays the wait-time and shows the car’s progress on a GPS-enabled map. But as is often the case when insurgent market players attempt to disrupt entrenched industries, Uber has run into resistance, most recently in New York City, where the Taxi and Limousine Commission has put the kibosh on the company’s newest effort, to apply its service to traditional “yellow” taxi-cabs. Read more: http://business.time.com/2012/09/21/uber-silicon-valley-app-hailing-startup-takes-on-nyc-taxi-industry/#ixzz2780jYwQB

Boring day

That is all.

Better economics leader calls for more insults toward Muslims

Hezbollah leader calls for international law against insulting Islam and says people who support offensive Mohammed film 'should be punished'

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2204445/Hezbollah-leader-calls-protests-says-people-support-offensive-Mohammed-film-punished.html?ITO=1490 I think everyone should burn Qurans, call Muhamed a molester and womanizer, and generally make fun of idiotic fantasies. Come on Hezbula, come and belt bomb me.

Multipliers less than one

Since Obama has taken office ….
[through Q2 2012 for comparative purposes]

--> For every $1 added to the economy, we’ve added more than $3 in debt

--> added $5.23 trillion in debt vs. $1.68 trillion to the economy
--> 50% increase in debt vs. 12% increase in economic output

Total Public Debt:

$10,626T [Jan 20, 2009]
$15,856T [Jun 30, 2012]

--> $5.23 trillion increase in debt

[source: Treasury Dept]

......

GDP

$13,923T [Q1 2009]
$15,606T [Q2 2012]

--> $1.68 trillion increase in GDP

[source: BEA]

Read more: http://nation.foxnews.com/government-spending/2012/09/17/every-1-added-economy-obama-added-more-3-debt#ixzz26kdtzPak

Software

Someone wants me to comment the lab code I left on Github.  I do research not coments.  If you want a comment here is is: The entire web is becoming a single JSON expression tree.  The computing model is the simple join of one part of the expression tree with another, result in a new JSON tree component.

Production code, the beginnings, is on this blog, look right. That is all. Imagisoft is moving on to other fundamental research.

Jerry Brown, hell bent to destroy California

No need to explain, my readers need just track Dan Walters as he narrates the unfolding disaster.  Dan is very good at sorting out the various disters comtemplated by both Brown and the numbskull, John Perez. These two bozos simply arte determined to destroy California, I have no idea why.

Paul Ryan and the 8 Trillion debt catastrophe

If anyone thinks the Republican party believes in sound fiscal planning, look no further than Paul Ryan, lil Bush and the 8 trillion is debt they added. They created the economic debt catastrophe we are facing. 

Obomney is a liar and coward, he won't get my vote, I am voting for Obomney.

Brad Delong, shilling for the Oligarchs

BERKELEY – When the French politician and moral philosopher Alexis de Tocqueville published the first volume of his Democracy in America in 1835, he did so because he thought that France was in big trouble and could learn much from America. So one can only wonder what he would have made of the Republican National Convention in Tampa, Florida. Here

Tocqueville was watching Manifest Destiny in action, the ability of Americans to move west, make states and recover the democracy the the Senate constanty steals. Manifest destiny is what made the Senate work. Manifest Destiny stopped in 1865, and demographics has created a massive un democratic oligarch strangling the economy. Let me remind Brad we in California have 1/5 the Senate vote we should have, Brad knows the problems this cause, he knows this is a big part of the problem, and Brad covers this problem up because the UC Berleley economics dept is a shill for the system.

The constitution has a normal response to this problem, pass out more Senate seats. The entire un democratic catastrophe can be eliminated with a 19 words: "It is the consent of the Senate that 28 more Senate seats are available to the large colonial states" That decree adds 6 trillion in debt capacity in about five minutes and completely solves the the delusions current in DC. The Senate cannot do this because both national parties are royalist jackasses with no sense of democracy. Seems odd since the American foreign policy is that shooting at oligarchs is the right of every citizen in the world. According to Hillary, it is perfectly fine for me in Fresno to shoot the next DC bureaucrat I see.

Oil back to $95

Texas crude that is. How does oil crawl back to $95 in the middle of a recession? We still suffer energy shortages.

California is a mess

Too much evidence to cite in one post. From the public pension shortfall. the myrida of state laws and lawsuits, Obamcare lawsuits, and nor the eminent domain machine, HSR. In the middle of this, a demographic challenge showing growth of 40% in the central valley, by the time of the next census; in which democracy and fair voting are gone.

Processors need data

Talk to Me, One Machine Said to the Other

Berg Insight, a research firm in Goteborg, Sweden, says the number of machine-to-machine devices using the world’s wireless networks reached 108 million in 2011 and will at least triple that by 2017. Ericsson, the leading maker of wireless network equipment, sees as many as 50 billion machines connected by 2020. Only 10 billion or so are likely to be cellphones and tablet computers. The rest will be machines, talking not to us, but to each other.

I meant to get into this topic, where are the new Watsons going to get data? From micro sensors everywhere, and in return the Watsons are going to control micro bots everywhere.

Bakersfield wants High Speed Rail moved

The state lawmaker who this month cast a deciding vote on funding for California high-speed rail now wants to delay a portion of the controversial project.
Despite early agreements to send the train through downtown Bakersfield, state Sen. Michael Rubio said Monday that the Bakersfield City Council, the Kern County Board of Supervisors and those who have participated in the project no longer support that route.
Instead, Rubio is asking the rail authority to "delay the project during the environmental impact review stage so that further consideration can be made for an alternate route that doesn't go through downtown," he said.
Read more here: http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/07/23/2919867/delay-sought-on-bakersfield-high.html#storylink=cpy

The idea was to run the train right through the largest high school in B Town, a billion dollar cost. Now, even brain dead Bakersfield politicians grasp the obvious, they want the route moved to the south of town. The entire route needs to be moved west, away from civilization, about 15-30 miles.

With a little bit of hope

Geithner Hopeful a Fiscal Crisis Can Be Averted

Read more: http://business.time.com/2012/07/24/geithner-hopeful-a-fiscal-crisis-can-be-averted/?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+timeblogs%2Fcurious_capitalist+%28TIME%3A+Business%29#ixzz21YxDxBVG

New technology browser

Here is a quick summary of the browser changes over the next few years.:

• The browser becomes our personal Watson.
• The new  exchange model become launch and forget, not client-server
• The new browser listens on its own IP address, no more same origin
• Its computing model is the JSON join, naturally.
• HTML rendering is just another interface.
• Every browser is a JSON join kernel.
• The killer app is the application specific database model.

My hometown, in the news

The recent bankruptcy filings of three California cities have U.S. investors worried that Fresno could be next to go down this road, according to a major Wall Street financial house. Vikram Rai, strategist with Citigroup Inc., said bond investors are increasingly asking about the financial health of Fresno out of concern that the city will seek court protection from its debt obligations and that millions of investment dollars will be lost. By Kurtis Alexander and George Hostetter - The Fresno Bee Read more here: http://www.fresnobee.com/2012/07/23/2919873/fresno-bonds-worry-market-amid.html#storylink=cpy

They told me our accounting was virtuous! I say, go for it, nothing like a good bankruptcy to shake things up.

NoSQL market heats up

The fledgling NoSQL marketplace is going through a rapid transition – from the predominantly community-driven platform development to a more mature application-driven market. Scaling up web infrastructure on NoSQL basis have proven successful for Facebook, Digg and Twitter. Successful attempts have been made to develop NOSQL applications in the biotechnology, defense and image/signal processing. Interest in using key-value pair (KVP) technology has reemerged to the point where the traditional RDMS vendors evaluate strategy of developing in-house NoSQL solutions and integrating them in current product offers. It will not take long before we’ll see acquisitions driven by emerging NoSQL technology. The future deals will likely be made to better compete both in platform offering and in vertical market segments.  Market Research

The driver here is the IBM Watson, I think, plus my own work, naturally! And this:

Open ... and Shut Just a few short years ago, MySQL was the undisputed king of the open-source database hill. But with the NoSQL market emerging at an 82 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR), it's looking like MySQL may get bulldozed by its NoSQL peers. UK Register

A few years ago I tried to talk to these people, but they were unable to listen. Now the roles are reversed: the JSON join now rules the computing world and all things SQL must be restructured to thye JSON join architecture. Am I going to write software? No, my imaginary company moved me from technology to market research, sorry.

Buck seems confused

Rep. Buck McKeon, the chairman of the House Armed Services Committee and one of the most outspoken critics of the automatic defense cuts, is one of the few members to admit he now regrets voting for the Budget Control Act. Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78639.html#ixzz21HbF6MPM The California Republican “was assured by his leadership that the cuts won’t happen,” said his spokesman, Claude Chafin. Read more: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0712/78639.html#ixzz21Hb9Nel6

Citizen's who are confused, let me explain. National Parties of Oligarchs cannot guarantee enything, they cannot even guarantee debt service payments. Only legitimate government guarantees, and California does not have legitimate government in DC, we do not have our share of Senate seats. Hence, neither national oligarch can guarantee anything from California unless a California democratic process occurs. That is why most oligarchs go away, or are shot or exiled; they cannot guarantee anything.

WTI, oil, at $91

This is something to watch, can the oil supply reduce fast enough to maintain price during a downturn.

California crashing

Fact one: On July 13, CalSTRS, the California State Teachers’ Retirement System, reported a 1.8% return on its investments in the 2011-12 fiscal year. Its actuarial assumed rate of return is 7.5 %. Its chief executive officer, Jack Ehnes, said in a press release, “Investment returns alone cannot place CalSTRS on a solid financial footing. “ He called for state government action for a “long-term funding plan that includes gradual, predictable and fair contribution increases for all parties involved.” CalSTRS is the second-largest public pension fund in the U.S.
Fact Two: On July 16, the largest public pension plan in the U.S., the California Public Employees’ Retirement System (CalPERS) said it earned 1% on its investments in the fiscal year ended June 30. Its so-called discount rate also is 7.5%. WSJ

Well that would be a big whoops, and a hello to LA bankruptcy.

Ray LaHood sold on Bus Rapid Transit

BRT is an enhanced system with modern buses operating on separate lanes or other transitways. By running on special lanes isolated from traffic, BRT combines the flexibility of buses with the efficiency of rail. And with high-tech vehicles and advanced infrastructure, BRT operates at faster speeds than conventional bus service while also providing greater reliability and increased customer convenience. Here

Constrast that with Fresno's Train to Nowhere. Why did Jim Cantos and LaHood saddle Fresno with an 1880s technology when Fresno could be running High Speed Lane Guided BRT between Visalia and Fresno?

The original Fresno stimulus proposal had us building a high speed Bus lane down the old Highway 99 meridian. We wanted BRT to travel at speeds up to 140 MPH. Costs would have been low and Fresno State would be the technology center for high speed BRT. But no, Google wants that business for the Bay Area. That is why the SF and LA opted out of  the Nowhere Train, these two metropolitan regions intend to tear out light rail and use the right of way for high speed guided BRT.

By the way, we got out of the last recession by tearing out rail and making way for the rubber wheel. The rubber tire had something rail systems can never have, a steering wheel. Now that Google and Seimens are working on ultra fast BRT on guided lanes we will repeat the pattern, replacing rail with the intelligent rubber wheel. Across the globe metropolitan transit districts are getting the picture. BRT is much faster and more efficient than the car with guided speeds above 100 MPH. BRT and the steering wheel make the last mile of travel accessible to bus in a way that rail cannot compete. In San Jose, the plan is to rip out the useless San Jose Light Rail and put guided BRT on the right of way, a passenger will be able to travel, single stop, from San Jose Airport to San Francisco aiport faster than the connection can be made by airplane. No brainer, intelligent BRT wins and Fresno gets stuck with a bunch of useless steel.

Oligarchs in hysteria

There seems to be some collusion between the separate party leaders in DC. Both extremes of the parties want to run up another few trillion in debt and then, hit California with the bill. Unfortunately, for them, it looks right now like the sequestered budget is going through. I hear a lot of talk in California about no longer sending our money to DC. The last tax hike referendum, on cigarettes, had a ring about not sending our tax money out of state. I also hear a lot about No Taxation Without Representation in the letters to the editor section. This bodes ill for the DC oligarchs. I dunno what to tell Californians except the distortion in Senate representation is causing the fiscal cliff phenomena. It is one or the other, either DC goes belly up or California does, we cannot have two central governments in California, we are going to have to choose; or the Senate will choose for us.

Dick 'Deficits Don't Matter' Cheney in the news

Cheney, who served in Congress in the 1970s and ’80s, will speak to Majority Whip Kevin McCarthy’s GOP whip team Tuesday evening and is expected to drop by a meeting of the Elected Leadership Committee, a group that includes Speaker John Boehner (R-Ohio), Majority Leader Eric Cantor (R-Va.), McCarthy (R-Calif.) and other GOP leaders. Freaking out over the sequester thing

Unfortunately for Dicky and the other Republicans that ran up $12T in debt, it is time to get California paid up on its debt service. California is not too fond of paying for a bunch of welfare bums in the Republican Communist Party, so, sorry Dicky, deficits do matter. Boy, those dumbshit Republicans sure wish they had the $400 B wasted on Strategic Definse! Or the $100 B wasted on the B-1, remember that wasted pice of crap from Reagan, the Communist? Or how about the two WW2 battleships Reagan spent billions on, and only used once, to shell some Arab neighborhoods. Then there is the so called Tea Party, a group of welfare bums who love to deny Americans a fair Senate vote, they love the king's navy, and they are all from small Republican welfare states with more Senate voting power. These welfare bums are not American, they would be royalists, lovers of the King, cowards in any other community. Now the Obamney wants to run up another 5T in debt and hires the debt queen herself, Condi 'Borrow n Spend' Rice.

Romney proposes new debt liability on Small Republican States

Orchestrated by Mitt Romney’s presidential campaign, top Virginia Republicans issued a series of statements Thursday accusing Obama of presiding over “radical” cuts that would harm the state’s economy as well as national security. The effort highlighted not only how competitive Virginia is expected to be in this year’s presidential race, but also the new hurdles that loom for Obama in a state he won in 2008 with a six-point margin.

While swinging through the East Coast, Obamney, the Republican, indicated that California has no responsibility top pay for any of the massive spending he plans. Small state governors throughout America stepped up and gladly agreed to cover California's portion of debt service.

Condi "Borrow n Spend" Rice

Everywhere the Obamney goes, the electorate will be reminded of the 12 T in debt run up by Republican Small State conservatives. Condi is the poster child for Republican Big Government spending. Romney goes to a solid Republican state and the question become: "Who is going to pay for all the debt that Condi intends to run up?"

LA Times blasts USA on energy efficiency

In the U.S. – land of the gas-guzzler SUV and 24/7 air conditioning – energy efficiency isn’t known as a strong suit. The country’s power management efforts are so poor that a new report ranks it near the bottom of the pack of major economies. Here

Something is going on at the LA Times, I tell you. Behibnd the scnese? The promise that intelligent high speed bus rapid transit will trigger a revolution in transportation. The Las Vegas casibno owners are pushing this. They look at high speed BRT dropping off 100 passengers at a time to their front doors, direct from down town LA.

Whoops

By Phil Willon, Catherine Saillant and Abby Sewell, Los Angeles Times July 12, 2012 Facing the same financial stressors that pushed San Bernardino toward bankruptcy, cities across California are slashing day-to-day services and taking other drastic actions to skirt a similar fiscal collapse. For some, it may not be enough. San Bernardino on Tuesday became the third California city to seek bankruptcy protection in the last month and, while no one expects the state to be consumed by municipal insolvencies, other cities teeter on the abyss. LA Times

The LA Times has been on a streak lately, praising Bus Rapid Transit and condemning most forms of rail. They are on the restructuring kick.

Anyway, what is going on is that Calpers bet a 7.5% investment gain and the global recession hit, they are losing their shirt.

We have penciled in the LA bankruptcy date

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-gs8dRfejc&feature=player_embedded

How's the software going, you ask?

Last I looked we had a great group in San Jose woking on the semantic processor. Much better programmers than I, so go for it!

Murray Rothbard hammers Reagan Big Government socialists. He is right about the American tradition of stiffing the oligarchs and their debts. Did the American revolutionaries pay the King's debts after the revolution? Does California intend to send debt service payments to DC? In both cases the answer is hell no.

Brilliance

Economists are all too aware of the fact that one's time has economic value. (You don't have to look too far, for example, to see an economist rant about how "free" things aren't really free if you have to wait in line for an hour for them.) Therefore, fields of research that study lines, and the time spent waiting in them, are pretty relevant to the field of economics.Maybe I'm biased on this issue because I studied queueing theory and operations research before I started graduate school for economics, but I find it fascinating that not only is queueing theory relevant to traditional neoclassical economics, but work on the psychology of lines is also relevant to behavioral economics. (Fun fact: queueing theory has focused on the psychology of lines since the mid-1900's, whereas behavioral economics is still a field working its way into the mainstream.) Specifically, people think a lot about the fairness of various queueing systems, according to "Dr. Queue" Richard Larson (my thesis advisor, coincidentally), and it stands to reason that this perceived (dis)utilty from waiting in line affects the valuation of the items that people are waiting in line for. Jodi Beggs

Jodi, your insite is worth a Nobel prize. I also am a queue watcher. One simple rule covers 90% of macroeconomics: No one likes to be third in line.  Anyway readers, watch this economist, she will have many valuable insites as a queue watcher.

Does Mark Thoma support oligarchy?

His blog has consistently denied the need for fair voting of Senators. His party, the Democratic Progressives are official supporters of the oligarch, as are the Republican Conservatives. Along with the Chinese Communists, these three parties are the sole remaining holdouts for oligarchal rule in the developed world.

The founders understood the need to supply enough senators to keep democracy. A simple resolution by the Senate will, in a single instant, banish oligarchs from the US for the next 50 years. Small state senators, worrying about bankruptcy, will simply adopt a resolution forcing new senate seats onto the large states and all the deranged schemes of the DC oligarchs will be restructured.

What is the value of a fair senate vote? If the Senate distributed 28 more Senators to the large states, without any doubt, 6T in DC debt will be wiped off the books as high government multipliers take hold across the layers of government. Had the Obama administration enforced democracy in the large states, and kept the budget balanced; then we would have zero debt today. 

The value of democracy, 6T, plus the additional 5T the oligarchs have borroed; together make 11T, the amount of debt the Republicans left just  before the crash.  Unfortunately, Obama would prefer bankruptcy than democracy.

Bob Blumenfield, California numbskull

Assemblyman Bob Blumenfield, D-Los Angeles, claimed that building the high-speed train system would be the answer to the state’s economic crisis. And he wasn’t alone in this claim. Assemblywoman Cathleen Galgiani, D-Stockton, said that the state would reap tax revenue for putting people back to work.

Nonsense. BRT is winning in LA, beating light rail. Anything under 300 miles, High Speed Bus Rapid transit wins. High speed bus rapid transit beats any car from 50-150 miles in range. High Speed Bus Rapid Transit is, over the whole trip, has 10 times the efficiency of Choo Choo. The only transportation system more efficient than High Speed Bus Rapid Transit is the airplane on ranges greater than 300 mile. Europe, Seimens can build bus rapid transit with low cost, modular, single track BRT lanes, beating rail construction costs by 60%. European technologists already have bus rapid transit prototypes operating at 140 MPH. The debate is over, High Speed Bus Rapid Transit is so profitable is can likely be done without any government money.

Google has become a pain in the ass

There effort to control profit in search results is making their search engine useless.

Mish calls a recession

Plunging New Orders Suggest Global Recession Has Arrived

Forget about probabilities and statistics and measures of so-called leading indicators (such as the stock market which does not lead), and the yield curve that is useless when zero-bound. Instead, simply focus on data from around the globe, especially new orders.

I am going to wait, then look at my favorite indicator and see if it was correct, lloking backwards. I have no incentive to predict.

Peter Orzag, Coward, Oligarch and liar

Compulsory voting, as exists in Australia and more than two dozen other countries, would fix that problem. As William Galston of the Brookings Institution argues, “Jury duty is mandatory; why not voting?” Mandating voting has a clear effect: It raises participation rates. Before Australia adopted compulsory voting in 1924, for example, it had turnout rates similar to those of the U.S. After voting became mandatory, participation immediately jumped from 59 percent in the election of 1922 to 91 percent in the election of 1925. Reason has the story.

Peter Orzag knows perfectly well that California and the other major states do not have a fair vote for the Senate. Last time looked, the Senate owes California eight Senators. This idiot fails to mention that that No Taxation without Representation overrules the Constitution and thus the Supreme court. It is a moral and legal rule that precedes the American revolt and goes back to old England. Further the Constitution recognizes the problem of large states and permits the creation of Senate seats to correct the problem. Obama picks simpletons for advisers, as we are starting to recognize. Nor does this idiot understand Krugman Agglomeration Theory as applied to layered government. Instead of mandatory voting, the California forces of independence has issued an arrest warrant for the Oligarch Orzag and any of his supporters. California does not have to break up, there is no restriction against having Senate districts within California.

Cal Watch hammering Brown

Worse than jury rigging

Brown’s antics are making Democrats in other states look like Boy Scouts, with this latest attempt to manipulate the November election.
Brown and state Democrats have so much riding on the passage of his income and sales tax initiative, that the Legislature just passed a bogus budget using anticipated revenue from passage of the hefty new taxes.
The Legislature and Governor not only increased spending this year, they obviously are confident they will squeeze it out of taxpayers one way or another. Democrats have become so cocky, this budget isn’t just out of balance, it is banking on futures.
This is a textbook case of counting your chickens before they hatch. Here

I am not sure why the budget even qualified as balanced under the rules. But Brown and the legislature are back to the giveaways, setasides, banking on futures, etc etc etc

Deficit vs GDP over time

From Jim Bianco of Bianco Research Obama is threatening to break the Republican record for the most bogus deficit spending of all time.

Republican Communist Party Watch

House Republicans on Friday demanded Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid (D-Nev.) bring to the floor a plan to avoid massive defense budget cuts scheduled for this January. In a sternly worded letter, House Armed Services Committee chief Rep. Buck McKeon (R-Calif.) accused Reid and Senate Democrats of blocking a vote on a Republican-drafted plan to avoid the budget cuts under the so-called sequestration plan. Defcon Hill

Cowardly Republicans doing the Boo Hoo, "Mommy, I want my goodies" I am with Harry Reid, go ahead and sequester, let the cry babies go somewhere else. What we have here is another attempt by the Republican national Communists to add another trillion to the 11 trillion in debt these Republican bozos already created. They are cowards, and "Buck" should know 1) California pays a 25% tax premium for his defense goodies, and 2) California is short eight Senators, so why and the hell should California defend a place that affords us no democracy?

High Speed Rail is dead

And thank God we avoided another Democratic National Party boondogle. The majority in California is against it, the thing ran into a wall of regulatory nightmares and lawsuits, and the Cal legislature turned it into a patronage system. Nor did Jim Costa, my rep in Fresno, get an agreement from small states to happily send us billions. So the DC House killed it, saving us all from a nightmare. In related news, BRT (Bus Rapid Transit) is outperforming all those steel rail vehicles that Democrats plastered around LA (LA Times). Now LA county has to decide how to rip out the steel rails and replace them with BRT.

Stiglitz has a fantasy

We should realize that the resources in our economy... today is the same is at was five years ago. We have the same human capital, the same physical capital, the same natural capital, the same knowledge... the same creativity... we have all these strengths, they haven't disappeared. What has happened is, we're having a fight over claims, claims to resources. We've created more liabilities... but these are just paper. Liabilities are claims on these resources. But the resources are there. And the fight over the claims is interfering with our use of the resources.

Nonsense. Oil is very short, and will continue to get short. We have a global economy which, as of 1995, has an instruction sheet on how to use energy efficiently. The web tells them how to do this. So, since 2001, increasing numbers of global citizens get on the web, learn how to use energy, and they buy oil. Stiglitz is simply in denial. Here is the video, you can watch the full fantasy action if you have time to waste.

Jerry Brown gets stupid

He met in secret with John Perez and Steinberg,  Cal State legislative leaders, and signed off on a bunch of special interest giveaways.  This was in violation of the law, I think, and caused much stir in California.  It is especially stupid for a governor who is trying to gain the confidence for a tax hike vote.

The universal semantic web browser, complete

Not debugged, but it compiles.  1500 lines of code, and will Match,Pass,Collect and/or Replace any data on the web when presented as a finite JSON expression tree. It digests CSS files, and with the SQLITE3 adapted, can browse and write any sqlite3 database, any. It has a natural interface to the GUI, when the screen is modeled as a finite JSON expression tree. It accepts mouse input as fetches from a JSON finite expression graph. It presents any data to the screen as a finite tree of JSON expression nodes.  And with a key word extractor, it can read and write plain text formally as JSON text, which is a finite expression tree. It can give and take any Json expression graph from the net, the files, or remote terminal.  Always listening, no Same Origination Policy.

It is all based on the finite convolution of two JSON expression trees, generating an output expression tree.

For example (Warning: Never take my syntax as correct):

  native:windows@dom_filter,native:windows

That code will filter mouse inputs by selecting the node pointed to and write the key value for that node at the proper location.

parse:@console:,*


Take a glob of supposed JSON text from the console and parsed it into structured JSON expression tree in the default memory based database.

Modules are easy. I have the Json parser module, the Json emitter, console, file, net.

We need a Replace operator. I see the Equals in the horizon.

Anyway, what makes this possible?  All of computing, is in reality, a finite Turing convolution of two finite graphs containing electron charge.   Then Moore's Law clicks in, allowing much denser graphs.  So we get these quant points, where a single layer can dominate for the Moore's Period.

I am not releasing any code for a week or soon, just going to whoop in Glee that I got here first.

Rendering nested key words

The goal here is to dump the Same Origination Policy

I need a 200 line browser code, one that will divide the screen up into a nested graph of key words. I need to demo the concept of a full HTML browser executed within the left join context. I need this:

native_code:@DomTree,*

Where @ means Json left join as always, and * is the wildcard data base.  The join in this case simply descends the dom tree and appends the screen using the native code data base.  Everything here follows the model of one Json tree out from two Json trees in.

Under 200 lines of code?
If I discount the Windows boilerplate, thee yes.  My only native methods are computing tab count and row count from the cursor variables, then doing a text out.

Mouse input:

Whatever@*,native_code

Here native code is only an input, fetch, and it fetches single node objects containing the button up id.

So, yers, no more same origination.  From now on, smart template.  This works:

native_code:@dom:@SomeSearchGraph,SearchedData

So I think this works:
native_code:dom:@SomeSearchGraph,SearchedData

Why not?

I wrote code!!

Well, partially. I took an existing Windows Dll loader and attached it to the system dll load key word.  I needed a quick way to incorporate exiting module.  This was all part of a two month ponder of how th display rendering software is changing due to Moore's Law.  This machine can render screen shots by treating the screen as a gaphical database, a Json expression tree.

So based on this discovery, I CutNPasted my dll loader into my Json Left Join, then began to ponder. Still pondering...

Brad DeLong makes humor

major reason that the crisis is intractable. The first issue is that Northern European bankers and investors loaned Greek politicians money when the Greek politicians did not have a mandate to raise taxes to pay that money back. DeLong

I mean, hilarious when we apply this formula to California and Texas. Californian's have 1/5 the Senate vote in DC, Congress has no moral mandate to raise taxes on California to repay the debt. And the problem gets worse when the next census hits a mere 7 1/2 years from now, when Senate representation in the face of Western and Souther migration wipes out any sense of democracy for the large states. Just reconciling these two views and still remain a card carry member of the Great DC Exogeny requires an act of Schizophrenia.

How bad will the Senate skew be after the next census?  Thekew measured in Senate malproportionality will go from 30/1 to 40/1; California basically out of the union.  California cannot exist with the DC oligarchs dep0riving them of democracy, California will have to go bankrupt and be split up; or go independent.

How soon will this happen? Within the adjustment period of Obamacare, within the vu graf period of Hish Speed Choo Choo.  7.5 years is the time it takes to adjust social security.  None of these things will be done when the Caliornia/Texas issue dominates.

NoSQL getting hotter

Doing some due diligence and checking out the market movement in the web database arean. On of the fruit companies (Mango?) go funding. So I will be posting more code from my version of the Watson JSON kernel and components. I might even make the production version a git hub, but the small amount of code almost makes it non-sensical. I will still be improving my SQLITE3-JSON adapter, and hiding it from the sqlite3 community, just to be a prick! But the Sqlite3 folks are hard at work, I am sure, so yes, our person Watson's will soon be here, and woe be to Footbook when they arrive. I have not yet looked at the Microsoft version, they were to publish their view of the Semantic Processing world by now.

Database NoSql market

My quick examination shows it budges, merely. But it is budging in the right direction. Question and problems being proposed that strongly hint at Json semantic processors. I will push it a bit. No code today. It is a game between kernel developers and project managers. The project managers increasingly ask about a Json kernel, and developers secretly making one.

Still more code!

Leaving parts of the Json code in a page on the right column of the blog. This is the cursors implementation. I will be looking over the market in a few days, see how close we all are. Making the personal Watson device.

More code

I added my parse attachment to the join machine. And my memory databases, three types. I keep it on a page way over to the right. Industry note: 10,000 really smart geeks and about 1,000 lines over all, using my sqlite3 adapter. This is open source, this is so much like js template, javascript, sql joins; its obvious. The best business are tools to organize data as Json expression trees, then the engine makers will speed it up.

Piss Trucks: America's Savior

Seriously, give me a stats group from the UCLA Matrix Studies on Meth, and one or two piss trucks. I speak as the fifth vice director of the 1500 patient meth hospital across old 99 at motel row, just north of Fresno. Let the guys from UCLA pay variable hotel subsidies for clean piss along hospital row. They will clean it up fairly quick. I know their game, with a mobile delivery system these guys would be great.

Treasury curve, flatter than a pancake

Reading the curve, isn't the ten year at 1.75?

When the curve is flat, then  Congress is losing customers, multipliers are less than one, and the federal net is being rolled back.  Soon the Great Exogenous will be a puny little swamp land, selling delusions of grandeur for zero price.  Hardly an economy that can support a 16 Trillion debt.  What the heck are those bozos in DC land thinking? They can't even sell Social Security anymore.

When the curve is this flat, banks have no utility.

Mish hammers Brown!

Gov. Jerry Brown announced on Saturday that the state's deficit has ballooned to $16 billion, a huge increase over his $9.2-billion estimate in January.

Lawmakers and others were hoping that a rebounding economy would help the state avoid steep cuts to social services. But revenue in April, the most important month of the year for income taxes, fell far short of expectations, leading to a shortfall of at least $3 billion in the current fiscal year.

The state has also spent $2.1 billion more than expected, according to the controller, further worsening California's financial health, Mish quoting

I didn't vote for Brown, preferring California bankruptcy. But I had warmed to the guy, he is at least honest and he seems to be restrucuring as fast as possible. Brown's problem is he is good enough to sustain the unsustainable for too long. Our normal Guv is usually a dumbshit like Gavin Newsome.

DeLong's democracy seminar

Folks, go to Brad's site and follow the goings on.  We are interested in any research relating to the lack of fair Senate voting in the USA.  We are looking for any researcher who gets the problem.

Code!!!

I posted two files on the right, the left json join and the interface.  The left  json join is the modern Watson, all 260 lines of it.  The copy I put up is not complete, I am still being a bit of a jackass. The real question is how do I write code in the middle of trench warfare with the Mexican drug cartels?  Moore's Law makes it possible.

By the way, where is Nancy Pelosi and her $200 billion to pay for the continuing genocide that  she and Diane have going on up there in meth land?  How does Jerry Brown the Jesuit sit idly by while Nancy and the SF goons continue to run the great American Genocide.

When the CEO of Princeton economics shuts down economic research

Then it moves from Princeton to MIT where smart folks actually do work.  Economists at Princeton can all quit their jobs and become union advocates, but Princeton can forever forget having a real economics department again.

Excplain why again, three years after the so called period of Keynesian mispricing, economic research is still halted?

Jim Hamilton proven correct on oil peaks again

Look at the Brent oil crude picture.  The most recent peak is above the second most recent price peak.  And, the East Coast is having a down turn.  We can confirm this in a month or so with the Ceridian.

LA Going Belly Up

The Big Budget Picture

Budget gaps are no rarity for the City of Angels in recent years. It seems like an annual tradition. In fiscal year 2011-2012, the city projected a budget shortfall of over $400 million. For 2010-11’s fiscal year, the tune was the same. As was 2009-10, and so on.
L.A.’s chief administrative officer, Miguel Santana, noted that the budget shortfall is likely to be much greater by 2014-15. “Every year it gets worse,” he said.
The chain of events is always the same. City officials announce a budget shortfall and the mayor seeks to bandage it with gimmicks that fail to address the underlying causes.
Criticizing Villaraigosa’s approach to last year’s budget shortfall, City Controller Wendy Greuel said that ”kicking the can down the road is not a solution when we can anticipate a growing structural deficit in future years.” She was referring specifically to a plan Villaraigosa outlined to borrow money to solve part of the deficit. But her summation applies to the inept budgeting approach of the city for years.
Former Los Angeles Mayor Richard Riordan predicted increased hardships and eventual bankruptcy if drastic action wasn’t taken by city officials. In an editorial he penned in the Wall Street Journal in 2010, he wrote, “Los Angeles is facing a terminal fiscal crisis: Between now and 2014 the city will likely declare bankruptcy.”
Riordan is not shying away from those comments. In a recent phone conversation, he told me that bankruptcy for L.A. could come “as early as next year.” Cal Watch

Meth causes permanent brain damage

The poison removes that part of the brain related to human interaction, a core golf ball size but extremely important part of the mid-brain.  They can never be cured, only controlled.  Recovery rates are less than 5%.

The national cost?

Under Obamacare, the 2 million meth vampires in the nation will cost 1 trillion dollars.  These disabled souls will wander around the nation, being shoved from place to place as communities arm themselves against threat.  Every community in America will have to have emergency anti-meth, police squads, with cattle prods, ready to9 move these folks down the road.

Gay Pride?

San Francisco is known as the birth place of the national menace.  Everywhere in America that gays congregate,  40% of them will be the walking dead.  If we want to crush the menace, every citizens knows it is maintained where er gay congregate.  Why are gays so proud of the fact that half of them are brain dead?


The Marin County Mafia

Ever wonder why SF politicians are so bizarre, like Gavin Newsome or Pelosi?  20% of their voters are brain dead.  SF is rejecting thei45 vampire c lass, they have promised then 100 billion in health care which SF does not have, so they shove the problem down to Fresno Ca.


Associated costs

Meth vampires never pay rent.  They cause 50% of the crime in America.  They have killed entire families, engaged in mass murder, are responsible for 25,000 dead Mexicans.  They steal copper from the street lights here in Fresno, they spread the disease, deliberately targeting young kids, cat hing them in a moment of confusing, then promptly amputate the most important part of the brain.

Fresno CA

The Mexican drug cartels and Pelosi's vampire squads are converging on the city. Already ha have had to allocate 6.5 milli9on in emergency funds.  The county sheriff is overwhelmed with eviction warrants, and the real estate industry is shutting down much of the rentals in areas where meth vampires congregate.

Parents

If you are not aware of this threat, then your children are doomed.

The Json Join Kernel

I haven't posted anything. Currently I have worked the issue regarding saving a fetched object for multiple fetches later during a graph join..  The problem was the kernel fetching a net object thousands of times, not a problem in the lab,but it needed to be handled. So I keep Json trees around in memory, as a data base, and they have their own cursor context.  The left me pondering name spaces for some time, and how much do I want to upgrade the local symbol table. So mostly pondering.

No luck on getting  ISP service. Fresno is too chaotic at the moment, in the middle of a statewide restructuring. We are being over run by out of town meth heads, and recently jail released meth heads.  Thus happening right when we are on the edge of bankruptcy.  Asa a result, the ISP providers fear churn, and I fear it too. So me and the ISP providers have an agreement, do nothing in Fresno until the politicians sort out the welfare mess they created.