Keynes and the expectation operator

Humans use Bedford's law, not the expectation operator. Hence the reason Keynes sent the economics profession on a 60 year tizzy.

If humans used the expectation operator the way Keynes assumed, then we would estimate future quantities with some normal error band. When we estimate the number of eggs in a carton, how often do we estimate 13? Never.

Instead, what we do is estimate the likely arrival time of the next carton of eggs. So in the household we can estimate that inventory might be 13 eggs, but that is only because we went grocery shopping a day earlier than planned.

Benford's law, different measuring norm, sorry.