Local government hiring was massive and continuous from 2006 until the 2008 recession. Then local government laying off was continuous from 2009 until 2012. Six years to run the herd through the hiring mill. So tell me another, bigger determinant of the business cycle? The spiral was, in order, California, New York, Illinois then Florida; or some close sequence to that.
Clueless the local politicians are, they have a limited view in a government economy beset by Swamp volatility, and they can barely voice the problem due to political censorship
Why so clueless?
Union control of state capitals agglomerate the union pension rules, Then delusional party members bring in federal government with tons of expensive volatility. Local government elected officials lose control of their budgets, suddenly some union rule trashes their budget. Count the number of large and small cities under severe stress or bankrupt.
Look at jobs federal from that chart. You can see the recovery act, a huge spike in federal employment to June 2010, then another spike right back down by
The stock market and pensions
Correlate local government jobs with the SP 500. The connection is direct, pension rules. Hiring and firing did not normalize (look like random noise) until the market was back to the previous bubble peak.
The current 10% correction implies a 3% growth in unemployment, according Roger Farmer of UCLA. and I am sure I mis-quoted, but close.
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