Thursday, February 11, 2016

Racist California DMV takes pictures of people

HorseShit statistics study:

The proliferation of increasingly strict voter identification laws around the country has raised concerns about voter suppression and inequality. Although there are lots of reasons to suspect that these laws could harm groups like racial minorities and the poor, existing studies have generally failed to demonstrate a link between voter ID laws and voter turnout among these groups. We question these null effects. We argue that because most of the studies occurred before states enacted the strictest photo identification requirements, they tend to uncover few effects. Focusing on the validated vote in recent elections using the Cooperative Congressional Election Study we are able to offer a more definitive test. The analysis shows that strict photo identification laws have a differentially negative impact on the turnout of Hispanics, Blacks, and mixed-race Americans in primaries and general elections. Voter ID laws skew democracy in favor of whites and those on the political right.

I will go in to the statistics in a moment.  But first, personal IDs in California have your photo, the cameras are in the DMV office.  Why would Blacks fear a photo?  Do the researchers are UC San Diegans have any clue?  No, they just picked up some random liberal myth and ran with it because UC campuses are  hotbeds of racism.


Let's check the statistics and what these bozos are talking about.  First, note that Califrnia is the largest state by far, Texas the second largest also puts photgraphs on their person ID:




In fact,  the five largest states have photo based personal IDs, and likely that is the most common ID used for voting, required or not. All but a few small states have photo based personal IDs, and regardless of the voting law, the person ID remains the informal standard. It happens to be the easiest way get the voter registration filled out. 

 So these authors are trying to find small groups of blacks who never had any need for a personal ID, but decide to vote anyway. That is 10% of blacks in Wisconsin and Texas, to give some quick examples from: https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/govbeat/wp/2014/10/09/report-voter-id-laws-reduce-turnout-more-among-african-american-and-younger-voters/ 

 Since blacks make up 13% of the population, the authors are trying to find an effect on 1.3% of total voters, ignoring the 4% of voters who are white and have no personal ID. Do the white voters without personal ID suddenly go and get one when the photo law takes into effect, but blacks don't? That is what the authors seem to claim, but that is a direct result, just get statistics from state DMVs and see who got their photo ID after the voting law changed. 

 These boneheads have no idea about stationary statistics.

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