Home builders, had a good year, and the latest release of the yuan flow says the Chinese home buyer may stick around. So, after a warm winter, they keep the crew on the tab, miss maybe two weeks due to snow. They bet an early spring, have their permits in hand.
Start there and the raw job numbers make sense, Nov/Dec layoffs we less than the prior, if I recall. Combine that with the oil wars, what do we have? A bit of trade rebalancing, at long last. That is why I am optimistic the recession will be mild.
That is a half point, the Nowcaster over done it. Retail is over counted, and that backward revision will be negative. Cars will not go another quarter, risk spreads are too high. A 1.5 from the Nowcaster is more realistic. Then we hav e another half poiont loss due to uncounted dollar strength, We get some public sector spiral. Total loses, a point; leaving us at a nominal .5 in Mar.
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