Place your job bet

This is the breakdown of NFP expectations by bank:

• DB 175k
• BNP 180k
• HSBC 185k
• MS 205k 
• Citi 215k
• GS 220k
• JP 225k
• UBS 230k

Actual changes, over time, complete cycles. The average change is: 217k, so expectations are near this number.  When the number cones in, in an hour, the betting bot should pay off by probability.  Ex post the bot has hte probability distribution, the bets split evenly, so more accurate bets win less accurate bets lose. Payouts quantized.

What are the actual March numbers like?

From my spread sheet, 689,582,740,539.  The actual variance in he unadjusted numbers is greater than the consensus estimate variance.

Anyway the betting is about to clear.

And they have, courtesy Zero Hedge:

And so the confusion remains: why did Yellen go uber dove three days ahead of a day in which the BLS reported that in March not only were 215K jobs created, more than the consensus 205K, if below last month's 245K, but in which average hourly earnings rebounded a solid 0.3%, above the 0.2% expected, and well above last month's -0.1% decline.