Precarious

Federal interest  payment, trending higher and volatile; yet one year treasury rates are as low as possible.  A rise of the one year to one percent, and interest payments jump up too fast, Congress shuts down.

But the rising trend in interest payments is deflationary as discretionary price discovery slows.  M2 velocity is dropping, still, below any level in the record; banks are consolidating fast.  Take out housing and medical, the consumer basket pries are dropping fast.