California pension stampede

But unemployment is 4.9%, and wavering, to be sure.

So, should the employment to population ratio start dropping, as in he chart on the left?

Not in California if we are at peak boomer retirement. And this bodes ill since it forces the state to collect capital gains taxes, far to erratic to make those pension payments.

Mathematically, that large number of retireereoreent a high rank generator, thus having low bit error. If you want balance, the retirees have to be matched by a high rank stream of labor tax, the employers work the chaos in between.
Do the constrained in index space, your total transaction size per complete sequence is the sum of your windows on worker, retiree, and employer.  Do it with Markov processes or do it with a deterministically with cubic root solution.

In either case, worker and retiree have to be much more symmetric about some algebra.  Or, saying it therwise, the conceot iof worker/.retiree must be a good approximator.