Oil up, ten year down

 Ten year drops to 1.38. I was not sure how it would go. That drives the dollar down and oil up.

We probably have foreign bond investors return to the bond market a bit. This looks like oil  bouncing around fair value.

More Godotism will not help

Can America Escape the Stimulus Trap?

Project Syndicate poster wants to replace their Godot with his.

Nope. Find the imbalance in government and hedge it. Faking it does not help. Revenue sharing between Senate and House goes a long way toward monetizing the imbalance so that state capitals can hedge the asymmetry.

See ya later Cuomolator

'The Governor Wanted To Sleep With Me': Cuomo Accused Of Sexually Harassing Second Former Aide

My favorite leftists, AOC, is on the case. Looks like we have at least three failed states.

Mapping Markov points on the Lie graph

  This equation tells us that we have three ways to count items using x,y,z as 'digits' .

For example, an item a,b,c can be counted c,a,b or b,c,a depending on the starting point.  There is a symmetry. Counting on item automatically defines the two other ways it can be counted.

So we take our hyperbolic geodesic and squash it down to the Lie graph. The angles taken around the Lie graph are three times what is needed to count all independent events.  But we have a commuter due to symmetry. That commuter is essentially a pit boss, it can exchange the order of X,Y,Z (now angles) and  count one item with one angle having bounded error.

This. Z on the outer edge, X on the inner. As we count angles about the unit circle, using the commuter, we can skip two intermediate angles and deliver the smallest error, which is bound.

We are throwing away two of three sample. If we take this and expand it back to the geodesic, we are adding two of three samples.

The Californians already lost the 2022 election

Mayorkas Sounds Alarm On Coming Border Surge Crisis

The optics of Biden’s decision to reopen an illegal migrant housing facility for unaccompanied minors blew up in his face as progressives railed against kids in cages (shipping containers) just as they did during the Trump administration. I assume Status Quo Joe thought he’d be given a pass since he is in the process of undoing Trump’s successful policies in managing the southern border. So, in order to do some work on the optics, ICE’s Timothy Perry wrote agency leadership that “we need to prepare for border surges now.”

Not a crisis, a well predicted event for the last 40 years.   Every election has Pelosi inviting hordes of refugees. As predictable as winter.

She is a school official who has never heard of one of the basic issues in education

Citing Racial Inequities, Boston Public Schools Suspend New Advanced Learning Classes

 School Committee member Lorna Rivera said at a January meeting that she was disturbed by the findings, noting that nearly 60 percent of fourth graders in the program at the Ohrenberger school in West Roxbury are white even though most third graders enrolled at the school are Black and Hispanic.

"This is just not acceptable," Rivera said at a recent school committee meeting. "I've never heard these statistics before, and I'm very very disturbed by them."

Maybe she is not a White or Asian who went to advanced learning class. 

The trade weighted dollar did not move much

Commodity Returns Plunge the Most in Months Amid Stronger Dollar
The dollar is a bit boyant but not really out of its stable position. Oil did drop, two points. And the ten year yield gave back about eight basis points to 1.4%.

So, I am not expecting our FX insurers to raise fees over night and will leave the ten year be, letting their clients use it. Anyway,we will find out soon enough.

Balancing the petrodollar

 

The USA is neutral to the oil deficit. That is because we are on the petrodollar standard. 

The dollar is now stable, if we are on the petrodollar standard then oil is fair priced. 

The ten year rate hike stabilized the dollar meaning an oil producer is relatively indifferent , on average, to earning the ten year rate or investing in oil production.

They were never really banned

House Appropriations Committee Chairwoman Rosa DeLauro (D-Conn.) unveiled a proposal on Friday to restore a limited version of earmarks which would allow lawmakers to direct spending for special projects in their districts.

Republicans banned the practice of earmarks upon taking over the House majority in 2011 because of concerns about corruption.

But supporters of restoring the practice, including House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer (D-Md.), argue that it allows members of Congress to more specifically direct spending and helps build broader support for appropriations bills.

They were disguised but the stimulus bill is riddled with them, just mostly for California. 

Technology pressing up on money networks.

 SEC Suspends Trading In 15 Companies Due To "Questionable Trading And Social Media Activity"

One of my long term observations. The monetary authorities can distort markets only so long before technology defeats the effort. We reached this point two years ago

No we have a batch of delusionals in the Swamp, an they may foul this up horrid unless someone educates them.

Screw McCarthy, I will help

McCarthy Says Cheney Hasn’t Asked Him To Help Her If She Gets Primaried

I will register repub and announce it. 

I will continually denounce McCarthy as the dunce he is.

I will praise Romney and McConnell as my heroes.

And any time that bonehead Rick Scott appears in the news I will denounce him as a supporter of mass shootings. I will be the most vocal conversion to center Repub politics as I can be, and promote the brand everywhere. I would be especially grateful if Romney primaried McCarthy.

Now playing, AOC dodging her own petard

Ocasio-Cortez, Progressives Challenge Biden on Minimum Wage Hike

Start with a delusion and soon the delusion is chasing you.

US intel: US president approved the Soleimani killing

US intel: Saudi crown prince approved Khashoggi killing

At the time, Soleimani was our defacto ally against Al Queda. Neither killing made any sense.

I haven't seen a talking head in twenty years

 

When pundit complain about a talking head, I haver no clue.

She is a Biden liability and he wants her out of country

Harris gets a crash course on foreign policy

The vice president is trying to build up her relationships with foreign leaders and profile on the world's stage.

The Californians in the Swamp need to prepare for a shock to their delusions. 

Endless earmark swapping

Pelosi To Keep Minimum Wage Hike In COVID-19 Relief Bill Despite Parliamentarian’s Ruling

Nancy does this year round. A very inefficient process, and she is getting to old to carry around that thousand page book of earmarks.

Wanted: Robot dogs of color

Ocasio-Cortez slams use of robotic police dog in Bronx community

AOC demands diversity in robot dog purchases.

Hasbro gives Potato Head

NEW YORK (AP) — Mr. Potato Head is no longer a mister. Hasbro, the company that’s made the potato-shaped plastic toy for nearly 70 years, is giving the spud a gender neutral new name: Potato Head. The change will appear on boxes this year.

A comment that will again get me banned. 

Minnie Mouse Fatwad by dirty old man:

Looney Tunes: Supreme Leader Issues Fatwa To Require Cartoon Women To Wear Hijabs

Watch out Donald Duck, PETA may come for you.

That ten year is a slot machine

I can see the numbers turning, up, as the earth rotates.

Now at 1.44%, and any thought that rates are cheap have gone out the window. The message? Get oil production back up. And the Californians are not fond of oil production.

They plan to suffer high rates:

President Biden declared during the campaign that he would repeal the Trump tax cuts on “day one,” but after more than a month in office, some key Democratic lawmakers say they are reluctant to raise taxes during an economic slowdown.

Democratic leaders are more focused on sending out $1,400 stimulus payments to qualifying adults and children by the middle of next month and following that up with a jobs and infrastructure package that could cost as much as $3 trillion.

 Once the Senate looks at the near term jump in total interest costs then it is delay, delay, delay. Those interest cost jumping mean Fed taxes rising and credit squeezed from the implied VAT tax. This will not go well. We got the Mexican Standoff, and that phrase will be me banned.

There, just a moment ago it jumps another two basis point to 1.46. Add that point of Fd taxes and we find ortselves rolling over the 22 trillion from a 2.1 rate to a 2.5 rate.This is sudden stop in the Senate, a no go.

Is Planck just a pit boss?

 Atomic orbitals are fractional approximations of surface curvature such that charge and magnetic are optimally prime? Planck just making white? Atoms are finite beasts, they obey relative prime theory.  Like, emitting error radiation to appear a centered white surface at a finite boundary.

Puts and calls and quanta

 Imagine the options market where every put was exactly matched to every call, pending interest is always zero. Any value of put and call is acceptable. That is an infinite world. We have a Godot.

Market size is finite, fuzzy, and constant.  In this case, there is a finite queue of puts and calls to match.  The pit boss needs to deliver bids at rates to keep the queues from diverging.  The pit boss has to find the closest match, and bear the market making risk.  

The pit boss wants his pouts and calls to arrive like centered binomials so the pay off is split the difference.  In that case the pit boss only carries the risk of known unknowns, the floaters who skipped the betting sequence. That risk, show up, as a slight skew between the optimum binomials arrivals of puts and calls. The pit boss at optimum should carry a uniform bound small fraction, and queue variances stable, mostly bound.

 You we will see that is an encoding problem, solving the economies of scale an deriving an encoder trees.  he pit boss maintains the indifference curve. These solutions should be be Markov nodes.

The pit boss carries a finite round off error so the puts and calls carry a basket, fractionally dividable. It is the maximum entropy compression effect, minimize  transaction by making agent keep their basket 2/3 full. Very similar to the atomic orbitals in topology rules. The orbital is like an indifference surface oi a topology. The structure of the put and call coding trees should be the 'imaginary' points of the known unknowns running loose. I am matching kinetic energy to known unknowns uncertainty.

Legal claims against Trumpster nutcases will not cease

Two Georgia counties are seeking nearly $20,000 in attorney fees from former President Trump and the head of the Georgia GOP as compensation for a fruitless lawsuit seeking to overturn President Biden’s victory in the state.

The level of stupid among the folks is astounding.

Trumpster nut hounded and harassed forever.

Bad blood reached a new level Tuesday night when Rep. Sean Casten (D-Ill.) took the highly unusual step of forcing a full floor vote on an uncontroversial bill to name a Mississippi post office because it was authored by a Republican who voted to overturn the election.

Asrtoundingly stupid Trumpsterss.  As soon as they are run out of the repub party, I am registering repub just to honor Romney and McConnell. 

Becerra, registered nun molester

Becerra BS: I’ve Never Sued Any Nuns, You Know

Our foreign lenders decree that we export oil, and they will enforce it

Economic Civil War

In making their case for draconian energy policies, progressive politicians often cite “green jobs” as a substitute for positions that may be eliminated;

The FX insurers are weaponized and have the support of a majority of our lenders. They will enforce a ten year rate high enough to force us into massive oil exports once the California delusionals attempt the stunt. 

Second Amendment is simple

U.S. Supreme Court weighs scope of police power to enter homes without a warrant

If the police can enter my home then any equally regulated private security officer can do the same under the same conditions. That is the essence of the Second Amendment. The Supremes will foul most things they rule on these days and it is way to late to repair their fiasco.

Rick Santorium hangs out with Russian spies!

 

And, by the way, Devon Nunes milks cardboard cows. Rick Scott plans mass murder, and Ted Cruz is about as stupid as they come.

Still no clue

Democrats risk doing too little with the power they have in Washington

Washington is not the center of power in the government channel. Nor do Californians represent the Democratic party. But I tire of explaining this.

The stimulus is looking nightmarish

'Paid To Stay Home'?! COVID Bill Pays Federal Employees With Kids Out Of School Up To $21K

Our money market masters are looking at this and calculating the future ten year rate. They will be pushing it higher.

Kudlow is an embarrassment

Larry Kudlow Suggests Texas Power Outages 'Consequence' of Biden's Presidency

Tucker seems to have gone dingbat also.

Tucker Carlson bashes CNN, claims it's 'more destructive' than QAnon

This is mostly about the new media outlet, and mostly that is about Fox News, an the others, losing a paying audience. I can get better information from Youtube for the talking heads, and the blogs work better than the print media.

Twitter is killing the blogs

 I noticed the lack of on blog pots on a umber of sites. Then I went twitter and saw the same effect on this site. So it is not just me.  The problem with twitter is that I cannot be an asshole else they ban me. Oh well, dunno what to do. 

Rush to the exit

 

State Employee Retirements at CalPERS Jump 15% in 2020

Boomers getting out of town before the tax battles..

Failed state

California Bill Would Give $1,000 Fines to Retailers With Separate 'Girls' and 'Boys' Toy Sections

Laurence Tribe: Justice Thomas is out of order on 2020 election

Exactly, and I pointed this out many times.

Thomas will not make anything more clear,  her mostly planned to make shit up.

Petrodollar in action?

WTI Surges Above $63 Despite Surprise Crude Build, Plunge In Gasoline Demand

Our central bank is in Japan. The ten year rising to offset the dollar plunge. Our FX insurers want us to export more oil and consume less domestically to  cover external debt. But there is a round trip to this process and things get a bit out of sync.

Egad, the ten year!

 1.41%!? 

That means seigniorage taxes will likely go up also. The two year starting to rise, and Yellen will be forced to run a rate cycle.  Mortgage rates will take a jump,  housing sales taking a dump. Pensions in California will soon be dumping stocks for bonds.  Oilm jumped up min price, gasoline prices will be rising along with. Cost of shipping will rise.

Cathie Wood Funds Whipsawed Amid Record Outflow, Rate Spike

Canary, coal mine?

Way too late for that, Chuck

Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) warned Senate Democrats, including centrists who are balking at certain elements of President Biden’s proposal, that failure to pass a $1.9 trillion COVID-19 relief bill would be a political disaster.

Schumer, who scored a win earlier this month when all 50 Democrats voted to pass a budget resolution laying the groundwork for the bill, told colleagues on a conference call they need to stay completely unified in the weeks ahead.

That idea is out the window, the emergency is over and talks will drag on as the earmark swapping starts in earnest. 

There goes my tiny conmercial property investments.

Macy’s Brick & Mortar Sales -35%, Digital +21%. Walmart Online +69%, US Ecommerce +32%. Online Furniture, Grocery, Clothing Sales Explode as Brick & Mortar Melts Down

Will I get a government bailout?

Who undermined Trump's Iran war?

Did Biden And Kerry Undermine Trump’s Relations With Iran?

If I remember correctly it was our own military who had no intention is sending 8,000 troops from Iraq into Iran. The odds of winning were against us. Remember it took a half million to invade Iraq from Saudi Arabia.  Every step of the way I kept hearng from military sources that they were not prepared for the sudden switching f sides in the Middle East wars.

Delusional Californians

How the White House botched the Neera nomination

They believed they could hold the party and that a bit of contrition and some outside validators would suffice. It’s not looking good.

I doubt they will figure this out. Expect legislation on stimulus to drag out beyond March. 

Lithium is the new oil

Lithium Prices Soar As Tesla, Apple And Google Fight For Supply

Now we have nutty tech companies engaged in hole digging, as if they were oil companies. Cont me confused. 

Tim Cook, does this make sense? Do you transfer your software pros into the mining division, teach them to use a shovel? I am pretty good with a shovel, I should have stayed in tech.

A little bearish?

 Stocks down.

The covid recovery is here so I guess there is no need to pump up stocks? Equities are not the economy. But equities respond down when the credit system begins working.

Rick Scott likes mass sootings

Sen. Rick Scott challenged the certification of Donald Trump's reelection loss, bashed Trump's second impeachment trial and recently spoke with the former president about Senate races.

The only thing I ever remember about the guy was his successful plot to shoot high school students. 

No, it is our savings to loan ratio

Galatians 6:2 tells us to “bear one another’s burdens.” One of the beautiful things about the price system is that it encourages us to do exactly that–unless we meddle with it, of course, and actually make things worse.

We borrow and lend to each other. 

My hometown, Fresno, is engaged in some make up growth

 I went out to diner, on the patio. I could tell from the traffic, and composition of vehicles, the a lot of work is being done this Monday. Much of it was deferred maintenance on buildings from the looks of the trucks and their equipment.

The middle states are the center of liquidity in the government channel

Centrist Democrats flex muscles, create headaches for Biden

It is ion the news everyday, it is built in to the sound theory of economics. And to this day we have dufas economists who thin Godot is in the Swamp.

And that delusion is the cause of most 'shocks to our beliefs', as Roger farmer calls it. A nightmare of undeduacted economists.

Well, mike, the Dominion lanes to take it all

MyPillow CEO Mike Lindell says he's losing $65 million over election fraud claims and it proves he's not pushing conspiracy theories for the money

You are the very definition of stupid. Are you from Texas?

Government borrowing rates are now greater than in the past

 Today's interest rates are 2.1% (interest costs/total debt).

But if you take the current market rate, 1.37, and add in the Fed taxes (1.0%), then as debt rolls over this cycle, we will pay 2.4%.

Rates are not low, they never were and our favorite economists are in a delusion.

Who pays the Fed taxes? AOC and her constituents, the poor left; and Trump and his crowd, the poor right. Is it any wonder we have tax rebellions? Is it any wonder California lost three tax hike referendum in a row? Is it any wonder why the left and right extremes are in violent rebellion?

This is why Yellen says tax hikes are needed for infrastructure, so you can forget infrastructure, the poor is not paying for it, they do not use it.

Is it any wonder tht bank branches used by urban poor and rural poor are closing? No, the Fed taxes are collected via bank fees, points and rates.

Is it any wonder why global finance has us permanently on the petrodollar monetary standard?

We have lost sovereignty on our monetary system, given is to Japanese banks. That is the best we can do, our economists are pathetic.

This would be a wash, rinse and repeat

 WASHINGTON (Reuters) -

Chinese spies used code first developed by the U.S. National Security Agency to support their hacking operations, Israeli researchers said on Monday, another indication of how malicious software developed by governments can boomerang against their creators.

Stupid is as stupid does

WASHINGTON—One of the largest makers of voting machines in the U.S. on Monday sued a prominent supporter of former President Donald Trump, alleging that the businessman had defamed the company with false accusations that it had rigged the 2020 election for Joe Biden.

Dominion Voting Systems sued Mike Lindell, chief executive of Minnesota-based MyPillow Inc., and his company in the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia, seeking more than $1.3 billion in damages.

The liquid middle states

Biden's infrastructure plan needs input from cities and regions

The Hill opinion writer is getting a big clue about the structure of the government channel.

Time travel

The day hasn't happen yet.

Stocks Slump With Treasuries; Commodities Rally: Markets Wrap

But Wall Street can time travel.

Wall Street Is Inflation-Proofing Its Debt-Market Portfolios

Twice the brains of your average Texan

AOC raises $5 million for Texas relief fund

Ten year rates still climbing, now at 1.38

 The FX insurance companies still recommend we buy and store oil with our dollars.

We are on the petrodollar standard, I am convinced. Monday market opening will be interesting, currently futures are down a full point. Crude holding at near $60, but green.

Score one for my favorite leftist radical

AOC Raised More Than $4 Million For Texas Winter Storm Crisis Relief, Volunteers At Houston Food Bank

This pic holds everything I like about here. Holding here glasses least they fly off in rage caused by some bonehead ding the mansplaining.

I imagine myself calming her down with a careful mansplain. Plus I* like Puerto Rican women, I like their rage and humor, they got both. They are idealised in my mind after West Side Story and this book:

Notice the resemblance with AOC? I read it in the original Spanish (with plenty of dictionary help).

These gals carry with them a rebellion which is fun, good food for an anarchist.

The Californians in the Swam will panic, force a Nixon Shock

Michael Burry Warns Weimar Hyperinflation Is Coming

We are over run by Californians, and he state is desperate for a bailout in any fashion it can get. Panic, hysteria, overnight meeting in the oval office/  It is sudden California collapse vs sudden default ion trillions of CB assets.

Turning me repubican

Arkansas' Republican governor says he wouldn't support 2024 Trump run

Our fate rests on the wisdom of these middle states, though Arkansas is barely in the middle.

I looked like this in college

 

Glasses and all. 

I must have missed a transgendering somewhere as I thought it was the hippy style at the time.

Who will stop the heating up?

Shipping Costs, Trucking Rates Soar Despite Demand Below Prior Years. Now Add Diesel Price Surge to the Mix

Not high oil prices, the petrodollar agency will raise the ten year instead. Janet will go on a rate cycle while pensions come apart.

Janet has a problem. When the ten year rate rises, the pension fund need space to adjust, and Janet has no choice but to borrow on the short end for fear of driving the ten year faster than pensions can adjust.

No, this is not a conspiracy, this is the finance community trying to avoid another 2009 oil shock. Neither the petrodollars masters not Janet nor Powell want the California pensions forced into partial collapse.

More heating:

The impact is on Home Depot first, then housing second. So housing is getting the double whammy from rate hikes and supply prices. This is all built into the cake as price is ex post, congestion has aleady happened and cannot be reversed. Powell and Yellen soon be having shocks to their beliefs.

The current and future of money is the petrodollar

 Macleod: The Future Of Money Is Gold (Not Crypto)

We are at a credit system anymore. The banks are closing branches, the Fed is collecting about one percent annual in VAT taxes. The petrodollar agency in Japan sets the ten year rate.

This is not a conspiracy theory, it is real, observable actions and plain statements from Japanese FX insurance agency and clear precise statements from the Fed which hints strongly. And you can read it in the charts, oil vs trade weighted dollar.

It is actually well known and well accepted, and the fiction of us having an independent Fed is just opiates for the masses, though I prefer pot.

We do not have a central bank

Is Inflation Still a Thing? 

Our central bank is conducting fiscal policy masquerading as monetary policy.

We are now on the petrodollar standard, and that is managed by a bank consortia in Japan, and used by most of global finance.

What we call the Fed is gone, gone since the oil shock of 2008 and the Fed is now a tax collecting agency of treasury.  The inflation index to look at is oil prices, and that is anti-symmetric to the dollar value, a perfect commodity standard.

When the Californians in the Swamp get this clue it will be hysteria like we have never seen, as bad as the Nixon shock.

 

My hometown, in the news

Fresno residents owe $48 million to PG&E amid coronavirus pandemic. Is there any relief?

Add another six million to the water and garbage pick up. The state is on edge, it may not survive.

California public schools bankrupt

Consequences: Oakley School Board President Resigns After Open-Mic Disparaging Of Parents; UPDATE: All Board Members On Call Resign Too

This had less to do with covid and more to do with the political system failing to pay for the expanded spending after a series of tax hikes. They lost three tax hikes and failed to get the Swamp bailout they wanted.

Arkansas butcase

Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR) on Thursday called for a new US policy on what would happen in the event of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. Currently, the US arms Taiwan through weapons sales and maintains a policy known as "strategic ambiguity," which means the US is not guaranteed to intervene if Beijing moves to take the island.

Cotton said he wants to make it "crystal clear" that a Chinese incursion on Taiwan means war with the US. "The United States needs to be clear that we will not allow China to invade Taiwan and subjugate it. Case closed. No further debate," he said at a Reagan Institute event.

This nutcase intends to run up the debt something fierce. 

He is a surgeon, why would he be considered an expert on covid?

In an op-ed for the Wall Street Journal on Friday, Dr. Marty Makary — a surgeon and a professor at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine and Bloomberg School of Public Health — argues that there are actually many more than the 28 million confirmed cases of the coronavirus in the U.S., possibly as much as 6.5 times more than that number. Between that group, and the roughly 15 percent of the country which has already received one dose of the vaccine, Makary argues that much of the nation is already protected from the virus.

He knows no more of the problem than any statistician who has been reading the reports.  And we still do not have an estimate of seasonality, which is positive.  

There is some fairly stupid reporting on this issue.

High oil prioces men lower dollar means higher ten year rate

Big Freeze in Texas Is Becoming a Global Oil Market Crisis

What began as a power issue for a handful of U.S. states is rippling into a shock for the world’s oil market.

More than 4 million barrels a day of output -- almost 40% of the nation’s crude production -- is now offline, according to traders and executives. One of the world’s biggest oil refining centers has seen output drastically cut back. The waterways that help U.S. oil flow to the rest of the world have been disrupted for much of the week.

“The market is underestimating the amount of oil production lost in Texas due to the bad weather,” said Ben Luckock, co-head of oil trading at commodity giant Trafigura Group.

Brent crude briefly surged above $65 a barrel on Thursday, a level not seen since last January. Spreads indicating supply tightness also soared. Ten months ago, the price slumped below $16 because of a demand shock caused by Covid-19.

The price and supply are determined in a monopoly because the petrodollar is managed in Japan. There is a reason the Yen is a carry trade.  The only job the Fed has is tax collection, and quite illegally I might add.

When the Japanese raise FX insurance, dollar holders must buy oil and store it. I works just like the gold standard. What do we know about commodity standards? There is little inflation.

The headline was good for a couple of hours

Stock market news live updates: Stocks rise, recovering some losses

Then the FX insurance agencies in Japan went to work and raised the ten year to 1.35%. The market is now flat.

Californians discovering the center of government

Tensions start to emerge in Biden’s dance with governors

President Joe Biden’s presidency hinges in large part on his success in handling the pandemic. But nearly a month into power, he’s beginning to discover just how much of that task is out of his control.

The White House is locked in a delicate dance with governors over reopening schools, distributing Covid shots and enforcing mask mandates, with Biden’s team wary of alienating key state leaders even as it takes stock of the lurching response to the crisis. Governors, in turn, are starting to push back on the first federal efforts to pressure them.

It is not in the Swamp, it is in the 10-15 states in the middle. 

Trumpsters have no money

“I think McConnell wins with the legitimate GOP donors. And he wins in the long run. Ex-President Trump lost Georgia, and the Senate, period. And the White House, legitimately. The GOP base is ready and needs to move on; the ex-President’s base — which is not a real Republican base — maybe not so much, but they’ve lost the podium,” said a former corporate PAC director. 

The tax battle opens another front

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen on Thursday said that tax hikes would be needed to pay for at least part of a big infrastructure, climate and education investment package that President Joe Biden plans to introduce later this year.

Yellen, in an interview with CNBC, said details were still being worked out on the infrastructure and clean energy package, which would come on top of a $1.9 trillion coronavirus relief plan that is now working its way through Congress.

Does this mean the tax hikes needed to bail the public sector are second priority? Did Yellen warn he Californians before speaking?  Maybe Yellen is expecting the Fed to increase taxes?

Biden teaching Californians how government really works

Biden privately tells governors: Minimum wage hike likely isn’t happening

The remarks are the clearest sign yet that the president is content to fight this battle at a later date.

The Godotists will be in an uproar. Then it is a few weeks for them to calm down. A shock to their delusions to paraphrase Roger Farmer.

And more troops in Iraq

Biden administration open to restarting nuclear talks with Iran

And to back that up more spending on strategic missile defense, which is true boondogle.  Back to the monopolar world. I dunno why. Who really wants that job?

Deflaton day in the markets

Because of a lousy jobs reporr, evidently. A mild case. 

No, we want more productive corruption

Bringing Earmarks Back Won't Fix Congress

Eliminating earmarks didn't make the government smaller. But reinstating them would facilitate legislative corruption.

Revenue sharing does not go away, it is mandated in the Law. The idea is to formalize it into an efficient, repeatable market. 

Reason got this one wrong, Reason is going all Godot on us, mandating we pretend to balanced government. Philosophies do not help, and we are not adding anything to the Constitution. 

The massive ice storm

 It is stalling oil production and raising oil demand.  This means the FX insurance companies should be raising rate n the ten year to 1.5 for the second half. If the Fed cannot find another third of a point in taxes then the government ends up with just about the same rates, about 2-2.1%, Truman's number..

For an insurance agency my worry is maybe we need another push, a preventative. Boost it up to 1.5 real soon and give us some shock and awe preventative. Then the Californians are looking at a different story, their expected interest savings gone. There is going to be an extra 200 billion/yr in interest costs they did not really count on. They will end up paying interest equal to the stimulus over the cycle of the stimulus. Yelllen will be forced onto the short end, and we get rate cycle.

But if our FX insurance agency waits, and we get ht with $90 we get supply shock. They more likely will give us a bit of a push on the ten year, maybe 1.4

The oil shock of 2008 and structural change

 We cannot avoid the conclusion, that was an oil shock in 2008 and most of our foreign bondholders went through some mighty shock to their beliefs, as Roger Farmer puts it.

The structural result was a strong monopoly in Japan of their FX insurance business, it became popular. The yen was and continues to be a carry currency because it is balanced among ther foreigh currencies via insurance payments.

The other structural change was that the Fed became our new tax collector. By default the FX insurance agencies have us on the petrodollar standard.

We will never see a general price rise if such a thing even exists. The FX insurance agencies watch domestic oil consumption and raise insurance costs to keep our oil exports robust.

A partial erquilibrium, and works as long as we retain consistent productivity growth with respect to energy.  But the is up against its own bound on being a tax collector, the retail banks are disappearing as transaction costs go through the roof.  This is likely to result in a meeting of the elders.

Our favorite godotist economists have fooled us here about low rates and demand collapse. But we caught the truth in time, no reason to be scaredy pooh.

Inflation across the states and inequality

The Relationship between the Inflation Rate and Inequality Across U.S. States: A Semiparametric Approach

This paper uses a cross-state panel for the United States over the 1976 to 2007 period to assess the relationship between income inequality and the inflation rate. Employing a semiparametric instrument variable (IV) estimator, we find that the relationship depends on the level of the inflation rate. A positive relationship occurs only if the states exceed a threshold level of inflation rate. Below this value, inflation rate lowers income inequality. The results suggest that a nonlinear relationship exists between income inequality and the inflation rate.

Wages are stickier than prices?  Wages are stickier for poor people? 

Baumol's cost disease (or the Baumol effect) is the rise of salaries in jobs that have experienced no or low increase of labor productivity, in response to rising salaries in other jobs that have experienced higher labor productivity growth.

 

 It takes loner for the lower paid service sector to catch up with the higher paid sectors.

It is not just endogenous productivity, but heterogeneous effect of the government sector that causes productivity shifts. We would expect the broad middle states, the most liquid to have the lowest inflation rate, the most neutral price settings.

The 'No taxation without representation' party

On The Trail: Trump threatens a Tea Party redux

Don't need Trump for that, it comes natural to us.

Looking stagflaty

 Oil at $60 and ten year at 1.3%.  The foreign FX insurers are telling us something. Whatever the next bonehead thing in the Swamp, we have t sell oil to pay for it.

Racing with California and Illinois?

Beto O'Rourke: 'We are nearing a failed state in Texas' due to Republican leaders

Texas has oil, it is the only thing left.

Snow ball earth, for a few days

 But spring is almost here.

Trump got booted from the repub party

 Trump Declares War On Mitch McConnell, Calls Him "A Dour, Sullen, And Unsmiling Political Hack"

Trump has the third party, but no money.

Kamala is driving the ten year rate up

 With Impeachment Over, Democrats Forge Ahead On $1.9 Trillion Stimulus

Jumped a quarter point in two days. Now it looks like she is driving us to a rate cycle. I figure we are anchored in our expectations of another rate cycle.

The presidents dunnit

Cut Down The Presidency 

The democratic character of the American people is withering surely in part because of the near total capture of the democratic spirit and imagination by the presidency, and the presidency’s capture by the administrative state.

We rotate the job over regions is why.  No president wins by telling the truth, we cycle.  The state change is too big, the change from NY real estate support to California bailouts. Now, for the second cycle, supported by Texas oil exports.

The center is threatened, and the risk of losing the middle states too high. No one wants to do that, it make for sudden stops in government.

Kamala does not do numbers

FACT CHECK? Kamala Lies to Axios with 'Start from Scratch' Vaccine Claim that Fauci Debunked

she makes a bold claim about vaccines for which the numbers obviously contradict. Most of ther henpekers surrounding Joe have that problem. As long as the delusions exist the stimulus will get drawn out. Each earmark discussion require quiet time for these gals to overcome their little hysterical short circuit on some delusion.

There is a trilogy in US monetary base

 Sanctity of d is a restriction on government and government agencies on contracts. It did not over rule power to coin.  If sanctity over ruled then monopoly on coinage is over ruled., That is not the case, the three, tax, coinage and sanity must be independent, or semi independent over a foreseeable future

It works, this is a good trilogy. The Supremes will agree, having the fiat collect taxes and guarantee government debt is difficult to combine. We jut saw that, a sudden, unexpected jump in TIPs assets. That edgers into the sanctity  a bit. Where is power to coin? It is real, believe it.

Due process and free fiat banking

 Fiats become free, but hold the resellers license, they will suffer Due Process.

Be transparent about discrimination, and at least allow congestion priced in and out. Hedge funds and ecology funds are fair. But, fiat bankers require a third party review of pro forma rejection. There will be a risk review court. It is hard to avoid that one these days.

But that builds trust, and the fiaters inherit a whole bunch of sales and tax accounting business via the provable contracts. The Fedwire interface to the sandbox is a nice position.

It seems to me, the Supremes like this deal. Power to coin, restored, fiaters inherit Due Process and the monopoly tax, renewable.  The guarantee government debt as collateral. Splitting up the costs, these levels seem real enough for the Justices. Make this a quick deal, no need for congress, it is a fundamental.

The legal case for contracted devaluation

We can prove that some necessary excesses government cannot be apportioned, and must be expensed by power of coinage. Prove the primary risk well counted for in marker debt rates, and the necessary imbalances much less.

One single clause, one single proof and bingo, we have gotten monetary base better on track. Congress can quibble about the edges, fine. How can this be denied? It is almost self evident in the sovereign power; to coin has obvious intent.

If a group of fiat bankers thought this through, they can see the point, they had no more to do with the wobble than anyone. They could sue, put that implied tax right where the founders wanted it. Fiats end up with an even smaller monopoly fee. See you in court.

The same contradiction warped

 All these middle states with coherent policy in the channel are being asked to take long term investment in California, as it will take a big chunk of liquidity and use it fast. These middle states have a moderate depreciation cycle, they are fine, this is not an investment that is good for them.

The middle states need enforcability, a provable contract with the folks out here. But we are in the middle of recall elections and who knows what. California comes with risk.

So the stimulus push by centrists will be direct support, more unemployment , fewer  grants to states and localities. They will at least hedge, the Californians will not have their shock and awe.

We have families, kids,m widows, orphans, students, nurses, teachers, central pensions, and so on.  There is out oil surplus, right there. No sorting mechanism, except where? the middle states.

How long will the curve stay right shifted?

 Are Low Real Interest Rates Here to Stay?

Velocities flat lined. Pricing resolution diminished.  How long?  Depends on the alternative.

We are stuck as an oil exporter and out choices quite limited. I think the possibility so uncertain that the Swamp will dole out stimulus in smaller chunks.

Newsom gets an election

 The word i heard is that the signatures are taken.

Shocked? Yes, relative o the  amount of chaos I expected. Too much? I was against it might be beyond help. It is here, the recall, or its endless litigation. And all those other state governors aghast in the middle of stimulus debates.

I thought Mayor Pete was a bit smarter

Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg wants to make the United States the “global leader” in high-speed rail. That’s like wanting to be the world leader in electric typewriters, rotary telephones, or steam locomotives, all technologies that were once revolutionary but are functionally obsolete today. High-speed trains, in particular, were rendered obsolete in 1958, when Boeing introduced the 707 jetliner, which was twice as fast as the fastest trains today.

Maybe expecting brains is wishful thinking or maybe there is something to the idea of Swamp Gas. 

A future without Trump or Graham

Graham to meet with Trump to talk future of GOP

If the Repubs want to keep the independent voters. Trump and Graham and Cruz all lost the Georgia senate races, remember. Repubs have a sure win in 2022 under Romney, but Trump and Graham could throw that election again.

Earmarks in the pit

The budget gambit Democrats are embracing to fast-track President Joe Biden’s $1.9 trillion pandemic aid plan will trigger billions of dollars in cuts to critical programs.

Top Democrats are already shrugging off the threat, insistent that Congress will once again act in time to head off the slashing to programs like Medicare and farm subsidies — a byproduct of using the reconciliation process. But in that high-stakes trust fall, Democrats will be relying on the Senate Republicans they are now spurning.

And the other side knows the gimmick and we end up in the pits trading earmarks anyway.  It is a dragged out process, and the 'go big hit em with a shock' trick will not work. And Krugman will yap at us for not grabbing the hedge. A wash rinse and repeat.

Here is a neat thing

 A box with a couple of processors.

But the box is sealed. It is in a Faraday cage. It has self destruct, tamper resistant explosives. Since it is locked, unavailable, use spectre proofed unknowable processors. The NSA cannot complain.

Then the buyer of the box gets some set of public keys it can distribute to clients who can proof the box at any time, for a congestion fee. Load the box with the new sandbox code, giving it a Fedwire interface, CB to CB on entry and exit. Inside this runs a variety of codes, from Swift, Viper and Solidify and others. Fiat banks buy these boxes, pay the telecom fees and open a variety of provable contracts, its and pure liquidity to their clients. The internet for Fedwire networks.

Bitcoin value

 If Btc protects against central bank shocks, then how much is that insurance worth?

Take the ex post CPI rate as the risk. It takes two quarters to CPI risk to evaporate, so the consumer is looking at six month holdings. 20k is a third of the yearly budget he takes that out of savings losing tfour basis points. At today's miner fees the consumer pays forty bucks total, or 15 basis point. He pays nearly 20 basis points for a inflation savings on six month inflation.

Inflation is barely measurable, the consumer can adjust spending habits slightly and easily cover a six month half point price variation over six months. The pandemic aside, the dollar risk is low compared to budgetary flexibility. Taking a 15 basis point loss nets him little he cannot handle out of cash

A new Btc business model?

We have technology today that allows a spectre proof processor to hold a secret Btc address. And we have provable contracts that can buy and sell small bits over a shortened shard chain, lowering transaction costs to a few pennies. Essentially Paypal is bonding that service with trusted proof of stake.

Under these circumstances, demand for the blockchain drops, and the tiny bits take on market par with the dollar. That is their price difference  depends in the different uses for each in payments. This devalues the Btc because it has less central bank against which to hedge. Btc eventually crowds itself out.

Unassignable government imbalance as a monetary base

 The estimated, and contracted, double spending to cover the unhedgeble constraints of government. That is where we get real inflation. It has a bound, just expense it and greese the wheels of government with it.

Renewable allowing the mechanism of government to hedge these costs, and gain some of that cash for their capitals. Tis plan follows the principle of central banking, keep government solvent.

The central bank can return some of that balance sheet, maybe think normalization. But the real effect is to get the fiats freed up from the business.

The contract may step up to full devaluation linear, letting some early incentive for the Senate and House to try real revenue sharing ex ante to the budget.

If government were a DAG

 

Government pretending to an economies of scale map. One can see, and compute, the problem, that path from top to Vermont vs top to California, or Texas. 

Our DAG is tilted, we cannot adjust flow quantities from the top.  So we change state, rotate the favors around over a political sequence takig a long tie to get balanced.

How much more oil should we produce?

 Our production is up, way up. We sell oil to support next New Green Deal.

Keep that in mind, it i a rather unavoidable topic as the ten year jump in yield will scare the bean counters. I perplex that this is not noticed by the proponents of a sane model? Who kept our head above water post 2008? Texarkana and the ND frackers. Responsible for the major jobs gains for a year or two. The state is still a work power house.

So, I am looking for the Next other But Scaredy Truth. Put an imaginary neutral party in the pit between harm and penalty. o that in the model, then imagine one in reality.

Kamala convicted for inciting antificants

 Her punishment will be the loss of both houses in 2022.

Chicago doing a Detroit

‍The Chicago Contrarian recently spoke with numerous executives and business owners in Chicago, who agreed to share their views without direct attribution. Unfortunately, this will not be a feel-good feature story, a la Crain’s Chicago Business. The reality is that leaders from the private sector in Chicago, including business owners, management consultants, investment bankers, lawyers and real estate professionals we spoke with, are worried about the future of the city.

Past the point of no return, like the failed state of California. 

Defund the police did not last long

NY Post: 

The outcry for more cops on city subways reached a fever pitch Saturday in the wake of a killer’s rampage on the A line. And the NYPD appeared to be listening, announcing at least 500 more officers would be on patrol underground by Monday.

Shell-shocked riders and angry officials pulled no punches in demanding safer subways, as a massive manhunt got underway for a lone madman believed to be responsible for fatally stabbing two homeless people and slashing two others in a 14-hour span Friday and Saturday.

Just long enough for the Dems to lose eight House seats.  A little bit longer than infrastructure week.

Three cheers for Apple and Tim Cook

Apple and Facebook have been in a very public spat over the course of the last few months as Apple dials up its pro-privacy stance. The two companies have long had tension, more recently however Facebook is taking shots at an upcoming iOS and iPadOS feature that will require apps and data companies such as Facebook to ask for users’ permission before tracking them across other sites and websites.

Mark Zuckerberg Reportedly Told Staff Facebook Needs To ‘Inflict Pain’ On Apple Over Privacy Dispute

I use Facebook less, now use Twitter with this blog. And ain't no Zuck gonna track me.

Also proves my point, Apple has the tech needed for secure personal ID and with voluntary provable contracts. That tech will move beyond the iPhone to a range of products from iPads to iCards. Apple is leading that revolution, and soon will will be a contract management app for iPhone.

 

Horse manure from CHERYL K. CHUMLEY

It’s really no coincidence that as soon as strong-on-foreign-policy Donald Trump exited the White House office and weak-with-overseas-players Joe Biden entered that headlines started blasting this: “ISIS could regain capacity to orchestrate attacks in 2021.”

She is a liar from the Wash Times. 

ISIS is back because Trump traded a defense agreement for a Saudi oil deal;, and a hotel I might add. ISIS always bombs us when a bunch of the usual idiot Repubs attempt yet another oil deal with the Saudis. Washington Times has no brains on their staff. At least the NY times has enough brains to cheat effectively.

I am a Collins Republican

Louisiana GOP votes to censure Cassidy over impeachment vote

He is the only Louisianan I would vote for and my conversion is complete, call us the Romney Republicans. We are joining the party because Trump has identified all the nuts and they are being kicked out.

Say what?!

Pentagon admits it has been testing wreckage from UFO crashes & findings may ‘change our lives forever,’ expert says

From Sun times and needs verification.

The relative transaction cost of bitcoin

 Bitcoin is a simple liquidity swap between two parties in one fiat currency. 

We would use bitcoin under the assumption that central bank stimulus creates distortion and we want distortion free measure. Currently the transaction cost for a Btc at 40k is about 30 bucks. If we use the seigniorage remits back to Treasury as a measure of distortion then th distortion is about 150 billion/yr.

The Btc transaction costs is about 20 basis points, maybe, a bit high. The central bank distortion is about 74 basis points, over the whole NGDP. Btc should increase in value as long as the central bank continues the distortion tax on fiat dollars.

Stalling on the Stimulus and Next New Green Deal

McConnell Says He'll Vote To Acquit Trump, But Democrats Have Votes To Call Impeachment Witnesses: Live Updates

This latest delay are the central middle states wanting to drag out the stimulus for longer before they jump into a huge uncertainty. And another Green New Deal is coming, and they do not want to face that util we get some oil exports underway to pay for it.

Paid for with oil exports

Biden warms up to the Green New Deal

Our ten year rate stays as low as possible as long as oil exports are high enough.  

If Texas and the frackers cannot export oil then we will not survive the California collapse and rebuild. This is a been there done that, and the California unions will not take the chance on a wild eyed Green New Deal that threatens oil exports. The Teachers Union is not that dumb. This too shall pass.

I would bet none of the Next New Green Deal supporters has looked at this chart of oil exports.

It is a battle over me

Nebraska Sen. Sasse bets political future on opposing Trump

Sasse, Romney, Cheney are making me tend repub, god forbid. I am the middle independent. I am the one voting split government. 

That was quick

 The ten year rat at 1.2. 

hen I guessed that number I meant like soon, not  tomorrow. The planed saving in low interest charged has been cut in half. This during the discussion on stimulus. and set by the size.  The FX insurance companies want us to export more oil.

The Californians are getting stuck against the constraint, this is Texas, once again, leading the charge with fossil fuels. It is been there,done that, t worked during the last cycle.

It is the center of gravity effect, if the Swamp does structural change it has a known transaction cost, about two percent on the ten year, or equivalent bank taxes. Swamp is paying r,about to percent, NGDP is still about -two, or so it appears. But estimates are fuzzier these days.

The Californians are beginning to think about stretching the stimulus out in stages,good idea,an they should listen to Romney. The Californians are having their 'been there, done thast' moment, and they too want to avoid a year long tax battle.

They are actually learning the art of revenue sharing,they took two bites out of the apple and got some bounded market numbers. The center of gravity will prevail in the adjustments and amendments.

Keep the Romney plan, out to some years. It should have the renewal option. Dump the weighting on revenue sharing,get the true numbers.  Take pandemic charges and debate a multiplier on that. 

Similar to 2008. The war on the n rather tha the war on the Iraqis. Enough to keep interest charges tending toward two percent.   The center Dems have an entitlement stability problem, and want that rate stable. he center will hold.

A tax on stock trades and a tax on fiat trades

The latest proposal in the tax was. Soe group wants to force  Modigliani–Miller theorem back toward almost true.

I say replace both those taxes with the insanity tax, Treasury must double spend to a 1.5% rate. It is insanity that we try and pin this tax somewhere when no one is at fault.

Shay's Whiskey

 We suffer a mix of Shay's credit rebellion and the Whiskey tax rebellion.

We had the Obamacare tax shock, and we see the bank fees and retail credit dry up. It is another of those Hamiltonian moments, no big deal.  And this is the second time through the tax battles. Sure, this is long cycle change, but the numbers are not that big. 

Buy now before the tax

 Here Comes A Blockbuster Retail Sales Report: BofA Card Data Shows Surge In Spending

The economy is increasingly adjusting to an ongoing and rowing tax battle. Inflation? Yes, bu it is real, it is a sales tax in effect, and it is real money, like today even.

We saw this in japan before the sales tax increased, a buy now then sudden stop after the tax. Real inflation? Yea, a rise in the cost of consumer goods across the board. But the sudden stop incurs a drop in prices.  This is not enough to kick off another rate cycle.

The consumer know we incur a cost after the passage of stimulus. They bet on buying now, paying the credit charges. Not sure they should be betting on sudden passage.

Why he sudden discovery?

The consumer knows, we have been invaded by the Californians. The consumer will be taxed, one way or the other, soon. A rational expectation if not taken too far. They have seen this before, recently, the sudden appearance of monster Obamacare taxes. Thus knowing the intermediate sequence, they are betting them selves into a binomial. Balance their puts and calls on the essentials of life.

Mass parenting via zoom everywhere

 We correlate school, family, and body in the digital, and place sturdy zoom displays around the neighborhood and home. We hire a bunch of Indian english speaking marms, constantly help out the child, street or home. Like if the kids were shooting hoops, the zoom would switch to a basket ball coach.

Real parents could just sign on to a remote parenting service. Make sure the kid is getting ll the homework done, zoom on the wall in his bedroom, locked tight. The service could watch the kid, make sure he didn't lose his text. 

You would have influencer experts. Some tennis gal always on the courts, like an Uber, ready to run with two or three players. Goofy math pros making math fun with puzzles for the kiddies.

There would be a utility, an operation that plastered zoom screens everywhere.

Jill wants to make junior colleges free

 Jill Biden doing her part in the take over.

Here is my Junior College fascism. It comes with a congestion price, else you take a bit of work at the school. More like a congestion priced army. But built around congestion pricing,he school is motivated to find useful things to do and study. I can see some of them profitable.

This is earmark entitlement like medical care, paid from the top of the heap. That is fascism and it is best directly delivered by the guards from the top. It is a federal business, let them run it. Fascism has been given a dirty name, unfairly. Has anyone feared a takeover by the fascist postal workers?

AOC is my favorite lefty

 It is not political, it is a thing I have for jumpy Puerto Rican women, like in West Side Story. I used to read Puerto Ricoan literature from those gals, got a kick out of it. Maybe it is my catholic schooldays. I like the way they jump. Like AOC, she gets angry, grabs her glasses before they shake off, makes me giggle.

But I digress. She bounces off that old imbalance, again and again, she will drive herself nuts.  I ean, she has a point, the Law will always tilt to the small states, unfair. But not that uufair, she can get her fair tilt today, with a promise of a re tilt tomorrow. She will have more direct cash over all, her bouncing costs to herself and constituents are too high.

My national priorities

 Kill covid

Get those ten middle governors big clues.

Free the fiats

Revenue share the unavoidable costs of the Constitution.

About 1.5% of the extra costs of boneheadism is no one's fault, it is the unavoidable government imbalance. Godot is not coming, Coase is your guide. It is not a big number, but it comes with an unavoidable Nash equilibrium, Treasury spends that 1.5% into existence, that is the only fair deal. If the Senate/House do not like it then they can run the revenue sharing pit.The transaction costs of faking it are way too high.  Why give up the fiat network? Free them, let them get the sandbox, I hear sandbox come pre-packaged these days.

The myth of Godot

 The Swamp is late Rome being invaded by waves of dictatorial extremest tribes.

Then we got a pandemic. 

Then we be switching sides, once again in some foreign war.

The kiddies getting dumber by the generation.

Omigod, hold the center.

A dictatorship of the Californians

 They come from a Franciscan Constitution, quite formal. 

They are opposed by this system:

The system has a center of gravity, those 15 states having the 4 -12 House seats and they occupy the center of the whole debate. They are as liquid as can be in the channel.  They have no intention of being offset in the stimulus.

Unpleasant monetarist arithmetic

 Yes, I do read this stuff David Andolfatto, and I watch your presentation and I went back and read the Sargent and Wallace paper so named, and read some of the critics responses.

We are talking about the Fed and Congress offsetting their plans.

My response is first, let us understand government goals. Consider government as a value chain independent of the private sector. Further, let us consider government to be a balanced value chain. The Laffer optimum is meth when the government pays an interest cost equal to the disequibrium costs it expenses onto the economy during investments. This is the r = g condition.

In other words, all things being equal, government wants to induce a structural change and is willing to pay the short term disequibrium when doing so. We know that number from looking backwards a long way, and government invests in ten year depreciation cycles and pay about 2-2.2%.  Truman had it at 2.0%. This is the NGDP target.

no government is a balanced distribution, otherwise there would be pure distributed socialism, the ergodic condition.  Government will cycle, guaranteed, the it will cycle naturally to balance distribution over multiple depreciation cycles.  We know that cost, it is today, about 1.4% per year.   We know who to ask, my pals, the ten states who occupy the most liquid spot in the government channel.

This is your monetary base, this defines a finite set of equilibria, and defines the known but unpredictable costs, This will not change. This is the unpleasant monetarists arithmetic.

Government will pay its fair costs, the entire issue is for government to be a little more accurate about its estimates, nothing more. That means the solution is to give Treasury a multi year contract to double spend about 1.5% a year, and for the House and Senate to spend so9me of that in a revenue sharing system.

Your presentation is correct. I think the stated solution  What Powell really wants government to do is hold the fort and take this moment to roll over that huge pile of debt. That is stimulus, that raises returns to your overlapping generations. Powell will not get it, the current interest paid yearly on all debt is about 2.0%. 

What is not accounted for is the correction cost for Constitutional imposed government imbalance, the inflation of 1.5%. The Fed is in no position to collect that, and Treasury does not want to impose it.

Converting ave's model to finite information model:

Dave ends up with an optimizing curve and shows conditions needed to keep government and the Fed  moving to the top of a convex.  The finite model us gives you the finite set of point the system will jump around, but never reach the optimum.

Use Bayes, I suppose. The govennment will under go a state change, a flip flop, once every eight years for 10 cycles. The average sampling rate ids 40 samples per cycle.  Assume the generations know this, they read the charts.  Then ask, how accurate is earmark sharing vs revenue sharing. What is the productivity improvement by freeing the fiat banks from tax collection duty. What is the total unknowable unknowable cost for each generation.

The balanced government constraint? Over each generation, every state and every district get revenue cash such that the yield per district mostly is equalized.

The key is formulating the sharing market as encoding the state size and generating likely state quantities from a uniform random. Then finding the interest swap to minimize market making costs against the valance House quantity generator.  You force a loss function, noise that limits bandwidth, that is the what the pit boss handles run time, and in addition the pit boss carries the unknowable, hopefully about a quarter point.  That is, the revenue sharing system, working to pe3rfection, means cash handouts measure to the nearest quarter point.

Easy to understand

Political divisions make US foreign policy unreliable, Saudi expert says

When repubs are in charge, they do an oil for defense deal with the Saudis, and get bombed by Al Qaeda. Then we elect a Democrats and we do an immigration deal with central america.

It makes no sense, and approaches insanity, but it is reliable.

Looks like the recall is a go

To this point, the national party had stayed out of the recall effort, instead leaving it up to local activists to gather signatures. Two state-based groups that have been helping to lead the push, the California Patriot Coalition and Rescue California, say they have over 1.5 million signatures and project they will have 1.6 million by the end of the weekend.

Organizers must submit 1.5 million valid signatures to the secretary of state’s office by March 17 in order to qualify the recall for the ballot, but they say they are trying to gather hundreds of thousands more because elections officials inevitably deem some invalid.

Why not, i guess. It keeps the system too busy to raise my taxes.

What fiscal space?

 

Our total interest costs relative to growth in NGDP.

Looks like we have less fiscal space than the CBO says/

Californians ripping off Utah

 

Utah has one of the lowest unemployment rates, being one of the mst productive states.  Now Biden and the Californians are ripping them off with unemployment weighted state handouts.

Hence Romney's plan to send more money to families. Also explains the growing animosity to Biden.

Measured inflation is zero

Mish: 

Not only was the CPI tame, but the BLS revised December from a reported 0.4% to 0.2% month-over-month and the CPI excluding food and energy from 0.1% to 0.0%.

The December numbers revised to zero. Most of the price hikes were energy related due to the decline in dollar which is anti-symmetric to oil prices.  Domestic produced terms are much closer to zero, the rise in prices mostly due to energy related items or imports.

The declining dollar,which took back all the recent gains today, is driving the ten year up, though it was down today. The driver, in essence, is the dollar trade weighted value. The ten year is son to return back close to 1.2% yield.

The BE#A cannot get a good measure of recent price changes because we do not shop that often. Note the collapse in velocities.

Even Texas politicians get clues

Texas Governor Warns $15 Minimum Wage Would ‘Put a Boot on the Neck’ of Small Businesses and Crush His State’s Economy

Although he will still be happy about the revenue sharing with an unemployment rate equivalent to California.

Revenue sharing?

States would receive $195 billion and that money would partly be distributed based on a the share of unemployed workers. The District of Columbia would get the same share as states, unlike in last year’s relief bill. Local governments would receive $130 billion, partly based on population, with a carve-out for smaller communities. Territories would receive $4.5 billion and tribes $20 billion.

Vermont receiving almost 4 billion?  This is like a two year budget for them. Until you weight it by unemployment:

 Note the difference? This is a California directed fiat, there was no serious negotiations.  Bringing up the point all alomg, most of our recessions these days consist of bailing out the failed state.

The Californians have taken ove the Biden regime, and this bodes ill for the US economy. The bill should be rejected.

Markets confused?

 We get a lower than expected inflation read. The markets jump in anticipation of more Fed stimulus for longer. The ten year drops to 1.14%, then market recedes but oil still up!

I think folks are focused on the Fed and ignoring external changes in trade. One thing they ignore is that we dig holes for a living and can export oil these days.  This is a different pattern.

Kicking Trumpster and fans from the party

Georgia Prosecutors Open Criminal Investigation of Trump Call

Fulton County prosecutors have initiated a criminal investigation into former President Donald J. Trump’s January phone call to the Georgia secretary of state asking him to “find” votes.

This is a concerted attack by the center of the party, and damn near turning me Republican as it progresses. It is all about the independent voters, like me.

Pelosi era problems

In Biden’s early days, signs of Trump-era problems at border

This is a return to the old Pelosi trick, invite them up to the border then create a stink in the Swamp. She has been doing this her entire career. 

Pelosi and the Californians have blundered into a 2022 loss, already. They cannot figure this out.

Aunt Jemima we will miss you

 

Probably replaced by a lily white mommy for the sake of anti-racism.