Oil was off to a reasonably good start this year thanks to the start of a vaccination push and a Saudi commitment to cut more production. The continued surge in Covid-19 infections and a new flare-up in China shook optimism and weighed on prices, but now things appear to be looking up based on the latest supply and demand data and forecasts.
For starters, in the good news corner, we have steadily declining crude oil and fuel inventories in the United States. Reuters’ John Kemp wrote in a Friday column that total crude and fuel stocks in the U.S. had fallen by a cumulative 130 million barrels since mid-2020 and 13 million barrels in the third week to January alone. Crucially, gasoline stocks were down almost to the five-year average, suggesting that demand is picking up meaningfully.
The dollar goes inverse to oil, and a dropping dollar means the FX insurers will be charging something close to 1.4% in the ten year, and that means trouble. That is beyond the ability of the Fed to collect taxes. Biden may be stuck in a rate cycle before he knows it.
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