Monday, June 7, 2021

Supply chain disruption, mostly in government sector

Front-end yields held hostage by central banks around the world have engendered a silent shift in currency pricing: exchange movements are being increasingly influenced by changes in the intermediate and longer segments of the yield curve.

Currencies that were typically more responsive to relative changes in yields at, say, the two-year part of the curve are now responding more and more to shifts at the five- and 10-year segments, with the dollar being a case in point.


 The flag part means local governments are unable to support themselves, especially in large states.  Quite obviously a supply chain problem.

1.6% on the ten year seems to keep the dollar stable and oil prices bounded. This is the FX insurance, the risk to petrobanks. 

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