Predicting taper?

 

Menzie's chart on ten yer Treasury yields.  What are all these forecasters predicting? Taper ending. When taper ends the seigniorage tax becomes, once again, interest charges for Congress.

The Fed tapers when the bankers go on strike. Bankers go on strike because that seigniorage fee is a tax on collateral.

The supply chains do not restore until the bankers go back to work.    Supply chain disruptions are expected all through the holidays. Oil goes up, dollar down, high import prices.

But, though usually wrong, I think the consumer slows things down first, not suddenly.  I am predicting this time is a bit different. I see no sudden shock.

Janet Yellen makes a difference, it is a 'been there done that' for her. Powell has already gotten a five basis rate raise. The stimulus has been whittled down.If the petrobanks prevail, the dollar should drop 4 points. FX insurers want no change in the dollar. Tapering will take a long time and run up against the debt debates on the budget.  I say it is the doldrums, neither there nor here.