Sunday, March 13, 2022

That is a flattening curve!

 Five year treasury, 2%; ten year 2.03%.

Now we have 2.12 on the ten year, and oil took a dump back near 100.  This is likely the Swamp doing two things, having a COLA spiral and sudden war costs. So foreign holders were willing to buy less oil and hold more dollar against the willingness of the American tax payer.

Taxes do rise with wage spirals, but they lag. And we expense another wage spiral from the government sector next year.  This is likely a seer hangover on government sector, almost the tnire stimulus wiped out in inflationary spirals. The government sector has legal requirements to adjust prices up, never down.

Oil is still not the problem, though I never anticipated 100 oil. I got black swanned on that prediction due to Putin. But I do not see a sudden oil shock. The talk of gas prices, today, comes with talk of Texas oil production.  This is new, this is the bit that is different. Having a marginal oil surplus when needed is a shock absorber.

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