Political Calculations get mutlipliers wrong

Political Calculations talks about how the Fed offset the recent budget cuts with QE, thus preventing a predicted drop in growth.  Unfortunately for these bozos, their theory does not explain why the same period saw two upgrades to real growth, just just inflationary growth in NGDP.  They have their multipliers wrong, the unexpected growth was more l9ikely related to the cuts themselves.

What is going on is economists have become even more confused about government stimulus at the moment of collapse.  The government multipliers are worse, not better, at our zero bound.

Here is the key in their research:

The model, based on research from economists such as Christina Romer and Valerie Raney, assumes for every $1 in government spending cuts, the nation’s GDP only shrinks by about 60 cents, while every $1 increase in taxes will reduce the nation’s GDP by three times that amount below what it might be otherwise. Most of the fiscal drag is tax cut hike related:

That is a fraudulent multiplier, well trashed from so many perspectives. I have yet to find any specific multiplier from DC to have a multiplier greater than one in California. I find just the opposite. In fact, the multiplier looks close to .5, every half dollar cut on the budget yields a one dollar increase in GDP.

The universal law of digital intelligence

Here I make a startling claim, why not?

All data forms have been and ever will be two dimensional, finte semantic expression graphs.
Boole, the original digital guy, gave use a serialized form of a two dimensional expression graph composed of and and or branches. That form has held ever since and Moore's law simply encapsulates the previous form into semantic values of a new basic form. Javascript is a serialized form of a two dimensional expression graph.

Called  the basic serialized expression graph the semantic fintie spaning net with no loops, a semantic graph S.  Then Moore's is simply [S] with density N, N being the Nth generation of Moore's law.  At each pass, the Density of S increases as Nln(N), if gate density doubles every generation.

There is only one digital operation:
Further, at each stage of the digital intelligence, from Boole to Javascript, the basic operation has been the same, generate the current S from from the join of two other current S forms.

This model got us from Boole thru multiplers, thru memory chips thru compilers thru to Javascript intrerpreters.

200,000 patients in LA County, at the county hospital on Obamacare Day

When does Obamacare services become available? Jan 1? I dunno.  But on that day, there are 200,000 new homeless and semi-homeless mental and addict patients available for treatment in LA County.

A county of 12 million driven to poverty by nonsensical government will now, on that day, perform mental and addictive triage, in the field, on a mass casualty basis of unprecedented proportions; with an ever declining budget.

A rubber neckers dream come true.

The usual crap, this time Daniel Gross

The takeaway from this run of data is that the government is losing its ability to inflict damage on the U.S. economy. Yes, falling government spending and higher taxes are removing cash from the economy. Yes, the stupid sequester is unnecessarily throwing people out of work and tamping down demand. And, yes, the rolling Republican temper tantrums have acted as a malign force. But while these factors function as a powerful drag, they are not sufficiently powerful to overcome the momentum of the private sector, and of the recovering state and local government sectors.

Amateur this Gross guy. Once again he claim that in spite of all the austerity, we perform well. This is a bias confirmation that multipliers must be greater than one. Here is a clue, bonehead, maybe the economy grew because of austerity, and multipliers are less than one.

Any proof of this? Yes, everyday on this blog, ample proof that long term and short term government multipliers are less than one. I showed this in the important case of California, and Jerry has proved the case since his policies were essentially austerity.  The January tax hike in DC was austerity, and the shutdown was austerity.  And what to we see? Continually increasing quarterly growth rates since January.

Economics of robotic clipper ships

Lets talk about a completely robotic sail boat that caries 500 containers.  There is no human habitation on the thing, so all human support equipment is gone, i can even dip in the water. The design is simple standard container carrier, easy off and easy on. Mass production unit costs? About 20 million.

In the business, these are herded, 20 at a time, across the Atlantic. Along with the herd of clippers is a maintenance yacht and a few humans who ride shotgun. This outfit generates about 2,000 in shipping fees per container, a million per trip. 20 trips and the thing is paid for, and at 15 days per trip, that is about a year payback.  That is very good stuff, if you can keep the capital costs down.

I am not saying that this is what Google is up to, but if they have the boats, then go for it. 

I say why not

A magnificent idea, and perfectly Constitutional

I would live in Tule, and I would be a very happy and productive citizen, trust my politicians even.  How about you?

What say we admit this is the solution, say get Rand Paul on board, how about Ron Paul. Where is the SF liberal elite? This is like the best idea that America would have ever done, overcome the Civil War trauma, get back to Manifest Destiny. Our founders expected this, it is in the Constitution. Give this to the voters and the voters will write off 4 trillion in lost assets, that is my first offer to the Thirty Hoovers.

The Clipper Ship bot

A good bot.

The Clipper Ship bot roams the trade winds. It needs no sailors, it runs for zero fuel costs. Slow moving commodities could be moved across the Pacific, incurring only loading and unloading charges. In oil exchange, just build a special Clipper Tanker Bot. Fill it up and send it on. No real costs to going from here to there. The things would be safe enough to rent cabins for ten day voyages. So you have the Clipper Passenger Liner Bot. Seriously. A lot of trade is not time dependent, and these can cross the Atlantic in a typical 15 days. Tree Hugger has the scoop.
 
The importance is simple. Of all the constraints on trade, shipping costs are really hard to beat, and that cost is oil fired engines. So, here is a real advantage for a good well rounded bot technology.

The pic on the right is the real Clipper ship, this one is top of the line.  Clipper ships made a big impact on shipping just before steam.  They were cutting the shipping times across the Atlantic, the best sailing ship for cargo.

My search engine is smarter than me

I admit it.  My search engine and I have developed, or co-developed a search grammar, by trial and error. So I can give it complicated four to eight word searches queries, I talk to it.  It talks back to me, it educates me. 

Should we be embarrassed or afraid because the global brain has passed us by? Not yet, in my opinion.  But the NSA bots, and other evil AI bots out there begin to scare, especially if they get smart enough to connect with the drones.

This is the third major problem, Brad Delong is working on it.  My search engine will sleuth his thoughts and bring me the scoop.  Stay tuned.

Communist party Chief Xi Jinping is a crook who kisses donkey ass

Bloomberg News Is Said to Curb Articles That Might Anger China

Bloomberg News infuriated the government in 2012 by publishing a series of articles on the personal wealth of the families of Chinese leaders, including the new Communist Party chief, Xi Jinping. Bloomberg’s operations in China have suffered since, as new journalists have been denied residency and sales of its financial terminals to state enterprises have slowed. Chinese officials have said repeatedly that news coverage on the wealth and personal lives of Chinese leaders crosses a red line.

Now I expect my site will be blocked, right? I am going to check my readers from China, if I see a sudden drop off then we have a test of the Chinese censoring system.

The Bitcoin has arrived

Digital money, the bitcoin.  It is designed with encryption safeguards, and exists soley in the transistors of our computers.  Its been around for five years, its real, its solid and the US government is freaking out.  The bitcoins are increasingly used in digital payments over the web, but right now it is a bet on the future.