Wednesday, March 17, 2010

If the Chinese RMB is cheap, then buy it

The Chinese Sourcing Blog lists the amount of Chinese currency available for purchase.

Select Currencies % Share of Average Daily Turnover* - BIS
Currency 2001 2004 2007
US dollar 90.3 88.7 86.3
Euro 37.6 36.9 37.0
Yen 22.7 20.2 16.5
Pound sterling 13.2 16.9 15.0
Swiss franc 6.1 6.0 6.8
Australian dollar 4.2 5.9 6.7
Indian rupee 0.2 0.3 0.7
Renminbi 0.0 0.1 0.5
Brazilian real 0.4 0.2 0.4
Other 25.3 24.8 30.1
* Because there are two currencies in every transaction, the total of each column equals 200%.
The most recent years

So, the US Treasury need only make enough offers on the Renminbi to establish a market price. If the amount available is too small, then raise the offer and cause the pool to enlarge. We would not be breaking any laws, but some RMB holders would have to break their contract with China, so what? They generally take RMB for a few years, so there is plenty of time to sell with a repurchase later.

Yglesis complains that RMB is too cheap, so does Krugman. Both of these folks feel we are better off borrowing dollars, so why not borrow dollars and spend it on RMB? So, I say to Krugman and Yglesias, if you want RMB, then you should want it more than more entitlements. Otherwise quit complaining.

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