Mean vs Median

From Mark Perry's post on mean vs median in price hikes

Mark says:

Historically, the median CPI has been 50% more accurate at gauging future inflation than the traditional CPI (based on the Cleveland Fed's research), and the median CPI is certainly not now showing any signs of inflationary pressures.

The point is that as the economy stabilizes, the median and mean 0f inflation should converge. We see that from 2002 until mid 2008. Most of the divergence was due to oil prices from 2008 through the crash. The economy is now stabilizing for oil at $80/barrel, which is currently $3/gallon of gas. Both the median and mean are headed lower and it appears the economy needs another 2% deflation.

But short term rates are still negative, relative to current inflation. Financial gamblers using the cheap interest rate for a carry trade have to time their play because deflation, at the producer level will also drop, flattening the yield curve for a lower overall output gap.