Sunday, March 14, 2010

QM Theory and the Money Story

All fundamental economic theories have to have a money story, and Quantum Mechanical economics is no different. So, I attempt to tell a story of money in terms of QM. Here I use of "inventory claims" as my unit of money.

The result of the story is the central theme, that the bankers yield curve nominally represents the average growth of inventories along the production lines of real goods. I will use the peach business, or more specifically, the peach production system as the example economy. Chartalists attach money creation to government, QM Theory ties is to inventory stability. Each unit of money or debt is a claim on some real inventory in the pure sense. At each level of peach production, an expert agricultural banker will issue a generic claim on inventory in exchange for a portion of the firms peach inventory at the end of the term. At the end of the term, the firm can deliver the real inventory or return the generic inventory claims.

As I pointed out, peaches are produced in production line of firms, each firm in the line interfacing to its inputs and outputs via a market. The general flow is to take in large inventory at infrequent rates and deliver smaller inventories at more frequent rates. This is the Shannon coding principle of production lines. They are finite stage system, and generally not reversible in flow. So, I introduce the lot size and transaction rates. At each stage of production, the firms will all strive to keep inventory variances constant, as measured in lot sizes. Note right away the difference in precision the transaction rates changes cause, but the precision is restored by adjusting lot sizes. The firms value added is processing the lot_size*rate levels between input and output.

Bankers perform two services, they measure inventory balances along the production line and issue inventory claims on inventory such that the amount of inventory in reserve matches the outstanding claims, to within a risk factor. Bankers issue inventory claims over terms that correspond to the inventory cycle at the particular stage of production. Claims on orchards may last 10 years, claims on inventory warehouse peaches may be for one year, claims on peach jam for one quarter. But the generic inventory claim, the Dollar Bill, is usable at any level of production. The result, of course, it that non-bankers can use generic inventory claims to go around and take inventory.

In order to get to interest rates, we need to look at anomalies in the production of peaches. What happens when the peach jam supplier is selling off inventory and the peach warehouse is hoarding inventory? Both are anomalies and cause the peach production to deviate from maximum entropy. But the peach jam supplier is accumulating inventory claims, depleting real inventory and has little need for bankers. The peach warehouse is accumulating peaches and has a shortage of inventory claims coming in. It is the growing inventory of peaches that needs to be balanced with money, hence debt flows to growing surpluses. So the bankers yield curve measures the inventory growth along the peach production line.

What about interest rates? If the peach warehouse has a growing surplus of peaches, then the banker will issue inventory claims, under the assumption that the inventory will be stabilized downward. As the inventory moves downward, the amount to be recovered drops, so the warehouse must return a quarterly portion of the original loan, we call that interest. The higher the surplus is above nominal levels, the greater the reduction as economies of scale improve, and the higher the interest payments.

Where is the instability? Peach production suffers quantum restriction that bankers do not suffer. Peach production cannot happen in reverse, peaches can only be grown in certain climates, peach delivery is subject to geographical road limits. The number of terms on the yield curves are finite, hence there is always tension between the terms, the bankers and peachers cannot get an exact match between inventory cycles and term lengths. So there are always arbitrage opportunities, which are only eliminated up to a cost effective point by adding more terms, more dimensionality. So the bankers have to recognize that the utility of money forces peach production off the maximum entropy path a little bit. That is the utility of money costs a bit of inefficiency in production.

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