Wednesday, March 24, 2010

What happend to the Treasury Curve?

Everyone seems to be wondering. Look at the Universal Economic Calculator, on Mar 24, the yield from the five to 30 years terms took a significant jump. Zero Hedge has an explanation; there is no longer enough traction in the short end for the Fed to manipulate the long end.

My shortened version:

In order to deliver all the interest payments due, Congress needs to expand operations, increase the stages of production to deliver goods. There is simply too much debt to place along a deflated Treasury yield curve with too few term points to absorb the debt. With help from the central bank, Congress has more plans then they have structure to deliver.

Look at it from a strict inventory point of view. If Congress expands it level of offering while in a deflated state, then transactions are fewer and larger along the supply chain. Hence, inventory prices are lower than can support the interest payments. Hence, for Congress to get everything done, the product must be subdivided into smaller lots and faster transaction rates with more value added. That requirement shows up in the low entropy spot, the five year spot. Congress needs to present something realistic for the next five years, five years out is the current constraint.

I am very interested in the California bond sales tomorrow, but fear to make a prediction. My sense is there will be a jump in yields.

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