Tuesday, December 21, 2010

Yes, Karl you will find them

Is this meant to be taken literally? That is, can I go out into the world with a spyglass and ruler recording additional stages of production and then find that these stages will proliferate as interest rates fall?
From Modeled Behavior
I can give an example.

Some of us remember the 1960s and in those days gas was in surplus, other constraints limited the economy. At the time, gas stations offered full service, oil check, window wipes. They also offered one other thing, the gas credit card, generally available in vertical integrated energy companies.

Why the credit cards? Other money channels were constrained to short Levine chains, gas companies were not so constrained, thus having a Levine rank one greater, a greater quant rate, we say in channel theory. So, gasoline companies generated their own debt channel, allowing consumers to buy gasoline with greater variability then the wage channel would normally allow.

From the consumers point of view this was great, they could top off the tank at various ad hoc moments. But, coherence, the tendency for adjacent channels to adopt the same Levine rank eventually eliminated the practice. We ended up with fewer plain vanilla self-pump stations, and consumer generally filled their tanks when near empty, and tank fills synchronized with commute schedules.

Want another example?
Look at the Treasury curve on June 2,2004. The thing is ballooned up. Count the observable segments. Go back, look at Mar 2,2004. One less observable segment. The extra segment represents investment bankers opening up new offices and competing for curve space. Investors increasing the Levine chain even as oil imports began to be constrained, shortening the Levine chain for the rest of the economy.

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