Sunday, October 13, 2013

Delong wants the federal budget to look like a war zone

Brad brings the subject up in his discussion with Nail Fergunson.  This chart is deficit/gdp and federal expenses to gdp.  The issue is can we operate as if we are at war?

Good question.  The answer is yes, we certainly can, during the next government debt cycle.  And in fact, we likely will operate as if a war were on, because in the next government debt cycle will be the DC's last cycle.  They will either cure themselves or be bankrupt. If you look at the swing in the budget deficit, it is easy to see that the next recession will bring a defifit/gdp ratio to 15%, close to Brad's magic number of 25%.

But, we have to wait for the market crash, sorry. The problem is, there are a few folks who would like to avoid a bankrupting civil war. So the goal is to get it right without waiting for Brad's civil war. And, I might point out, UC is likely to be on the wrong side if California citizens ever figure out where their tax money is going.

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