Wednesday, February 12, 2014

Is government continually inflationary with respect to the dollar?

Folks get confused about this. First, ask the question, is government increasingly volatile over times. The answer over the last forty years has been yes. Hence, if reserves government needs to set aside to cover the volatility increase over time. Let's assume we count reserves in terms of the dollar, and since the government owns the Fed, government can order a continuing increase deflation of the dollar to maintain reserves. That is why the governments effective interest rate declines over time. Real gdp drops, but nominal gdp drops faster.  Hence the nominal dollar buys more real goods, except real goods flow are declining. So the nominal dollar flow declines faster.

So even though government volatility is increasing, real goods flow decline faster to compensate.

Why do we have real growth again? See the chart, the federal government is shrinking fast. It is shrinking faster than growth. How long can the federal government keep dropping in relative spending? In other words, what is the stable outcome. The outcome is a balance between the small states that want discretionary spending and the large states that don't. We shall see.

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