Since the consumer pays losses as they are uncovered, and we know what they have been over the thirty year period, we can normalize expenses. What we see is a kink in the curve because the federal government is congested, mostly waiting for the two large sunbelt states to adapt. The federal government should be borrowing at the long rate and paying more interest expenses with a federal consumption tax. These are long term losses, and the cheaper thing to do is for the federal government to borrow long term and acknowledge them. Move its term structure to the long end. Trying to move the term structure to the short end is tightening on the government. If the Fed raised short term rates to the inflation rate we would see the kink.
The problem we have is the Fed and government are short sighted. The curve should really be flatter, short term rate up and long term rates down. But the treasury market operates on the shorter look back that the fed uses, and the fed uses the shorter look back that Congress uses. If we assume that the consumer desires to pay for ongoing losses, then the inflation rate should adjust rapidly to charge the costs, the Fed can do this by raising rates. The effect on the federal government is that it could pass its stock pile of government goods to the consumer as it needs, which an increasing need. But since the co9nsumer agrees to pay the inflation cost, the curve would be kinked downward, the government getting lower rates at the wholesale level. The result is unstable, but accurate, the curve would be kinked.
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