Measure government inaccuracy by looking at deficit swings

They swing about 7% of GDP these days. That is not the government channel helping, that is the government channel disturbing the economy which wants a 3% accuracy.  The government channel is nominally about 35% of the economy. This economy pays a fixed, long term price, about 5% of GDP set aside to cover the cost, that is a third of the 15% reserves we keep. So velocity runs from 7 to 11, most of it caused by the government sector.

The badder the swing the more we enhance reserves and lower velocity. The swings increase and eventually the economy can no longer afford the extra reserves and we decouple the union.