Sunday, February 9, 2014

Oil is liquid, sort of like money

The real price of oil was killing us in the 80s. Volker raised rates above inflation, general prices rose and oil prices dropped. Since then oil has done an increasingly good job of stabilizing prices. The stock and flow of real goods is balanced, raising rates above inflation causes prices to rise so returns on liquid reserves match inventory volatility. Oil is more liquid than other goods so oil can change flow to adjust for returns. So Volker raises inflation, oil flows increase while other goods prices increase. Eventually the real and nominal prices of oil stabilize.

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