Saturday, June 28, 2014

Statistical fraud in action

Is this the real cost of borrowing by the Treasury? Maybe, but it is only an estimate of current growth, and this interest rate will not perform much better than the standard rate. They are both estimated by the same folks.

So what does the declining rate tells us? Nothing, really. We have no way to compare past, present and future from this chart.   So there is no method to tell us if this is a good or bad rate.

Krugman uses this to say rates are cheap because they will go up sometime. Based on what analysis?  Rates have been headed down for thirty years, these may be expensive rates, or these may just be rock bottom rates.
But in the post-2008 economy we’ve been awash in unemployed labor and capital with no place to go. This is an ideal time to be doing a lot about climate!

OK, what makes climate equipment more expensive in good times? The value is still relative to alternative goods, at the time of purchase.

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