Thursday, August 27, 2015

Somebody raised rates

 The blue line is the one year treasury yield. It's up to .35, triple the .10 when this chart starts.  Who raised rates? Well the Fed bought short term reasuries, the green line, right axis. The red line are the total treasuries held, unchanged, so the Fed moved 160 billion from long to short term debt.

Rates are up. the fed did not raise rates.

Treasury raised rates, it is using short term debt to cover short term healthcare costs. Sudden onset Obamacare has added three points to a four point health price index. The Fed cannot keep up with Obamacare.

Decemer is the meeting on the debt ceiling, the topic? Italian debt levels, and lower potential growth to nearly 1.5%.  But worse, New York, the fourth most insolvent state, will start its down spiral, and be on the politician's mind. How to vote on Italian Day? Hmm...

The Fed is lost in a maze.
Member banks are owned or associated with the primary dealers who run the Treasury adisory committe. Treasury owns the government sponsored lending entrerprise,some in receivership. But the Fed owns assets from these lenders, and owns 2.4T in Tresury debt. The Fed also takes deposits from these GSEs, who also bank with member banks. The Fed cannot deal wih the loops and instability.

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