Sunday, November 6, 2016

The US political system is pro-cycvlical

The U.S. presidential election is looking like less of a certainty for Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton than it did a month ago, prompting mutual fund managers to brace for more volatility by raising cash and getting their buying lists ready for opportunities.
"The market has been pricing in a Hillary victory, and now with the introduction of the Comey letter, there's a stronger possibility that the base case doesn't happen," said Phil Orlando, portfolio manager of the New York-based Federated Global Allocation (FSTBX.O) fund.
FBI Director James Comey wrote Congress last Friday that more of Clinton's emails would be scrutinized as part of an investigation into Clinton's use of a private email system while she was secretary of state.
The benchmark S&P 500 stock index has shed nearly 2 percent since Comey's letter was made public, and notched its longest losing streak in nearly five years.

Anybody doubt it?  Economists go all the way back to 1950 to get frequency of recessions.  Wrong, go back to the prior monetary shock, and count from there.  It is every presidential election, to almost 85% probability.   The bots jam the graph at regime change.

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