Wednesday, December 21, 2016

How big and what kind of tax cut in 2017

The matter will e decided during the several holiday parties back there among the new team.
The market has a probability computed for the result. One of the major speculations is that we get a Reagan style recession, 1982.  The less likely possibility ios we get a good can kick, hold her steady. I have a hard time seeing the new bunch do more than one big thing, then its hold on an shuffle the accounts. And of the possible big things, include a remake of Obamacare.  Then we include the possibility of a pension bailout stampede/.

But we are close to a Nixon shock moment, which likely happens asynchronously, and is unpriced risk which comes out as a humongous bit error, effecting pricing for ten years and more.  We will know.  It is the point at which the debt cartel and the Senators cannot agree on interest payments, the debt cartel cannot guarantee the buying power needed.  That number, if iot can be agreed, should come out of the holiday parties.  So, right at new years, the entire world will stop and try to get a fair peek at at Trump's obviously rigged book.

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