Consumers dropping retail velocity

According to Friday’s consumer sentiment survey released by Reuters/University of Michigan, inflation expectations have been rising since late summer. Back in September, U.S. consumers expected the inflation rate one year out to hit 2.2%. In early-February, the one-year expected inflation rate is up to 3.4%.WSJ

This is a sure sign of a stealth contraction on the part of the consumer. Producer gains are dropping, M1V is dropping, and the targets for a stable M1V are sparse at the short end. We are headed back to 1995.