Tim Duy, and others, are using minimum variance estimates to get changes in GDP growth due to supply shocks. But the method assumes the economy is capable of infintesimal changes in inventory cycles and quant levels. A better estimate is to look at revision history, for the time being. Run the normal minimum variance estimate, then take the near term predicted growth and revise it down by the recent revision percentage. That should give you a lower bound for the near term, but it does not tell you how long we stay in the lowered condition. But I would expect something like 2.7% growth for the next quarter.
Supply chains will shorten for the next slowdown, however, I think poducers in the middle of the curve know this, and plan an orderly consolidation. Also, emerging markets have figured much of this out, they won't be caught off guard this time around. The real problem is going to be goverment adjustments here at home.
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