Saturday, February 12, 2011

Look closer Bruce Bartlett

[T]he fact is that millions of Americans benefit from government programs without realizing it. Indeed, research by Cornell political scientist Suzanne Mettler shows that many recipients of government benefits don’t believe that they have received any benefits
Says Bruce.

The millions of Americans are right, they do not receive benefits, they receive volatility. The researcher from Cornell clearly compares everyone over time and space with the current feelings of the beneficiaries in the study quoted.  At any given time, there will be very large minorities in the sample who currently under go volatility due to the benefits; forced to retire before their time to conserve a benefit, having to delay college because of a sudden tuition hike to make up for a medicaid shortfall, a rapid change in house prices due to government skewing the market, dealing with community drug addiction from Medicare funded prescription drugs,  housing dislocation caused by large HUD programs, mandates from the Feds causing volatile  local governments in general. The worse, is failing to work because the wages do not cover fixed payment benefit costs.

The skew is unobservable because of her methodology, the citizen's report skew because they are on the periphery, she mislabels it ignorance.

Asking survey questions is like talking to economists. Ask them about alternative pathes that occur given slightly alternative policy, get the direction and magnitude of change.

Here is the better measure. It is a direct comparison of aggregate volatility to individual volatility.

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