Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Tail risk in housing

Kling talks about it, here is Wiki. The issue is should Congress bail out homeowners during price swings. If prices are a relatively smooth bell curve, then Congress steps in only on rare infrequent occasions. But are house prices reasonably bell shaped? Not according to this last boom/bust, they went through wild swings.

The economics of sparse solutions, network theory, tells me that during economic change, the spiral swings through housing and guarantees wild price changes. The best bet is for Congress to stay out of housing all together, otherwise the industry will simply plan on Congressional bailouts, because the housing industry knows prices change suddenly over geography and development sequences..

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