Saturday, February 12, 2011

Talking about about printing presses

Due to this remarkable research by Jeremaih Dittmar, the Webosphere is talking.

Go look, I won't reprint his summary, and the research is readable.  He talks about the growth of printing presses across Europe over a 60 year period from 1400. But what happens next? The Lutheran revolution, the Lutheran bible and religious wars.

Back to one of my themes: Information technology changes our view of the world, and the current world is not the way we want any more.  So we get a mismatch, potential growth is above actual growth. The research shows growth in cities as the press was introduced.  What the Lutherians gave was the growth of Germany and the nation state, and that transition was violent.

Mark Perry calls the printing press Info Age 1.0, then he jumps to the Internet age, 2.0.  I have a more detailed view:

1.0  Printing press 1.5 Steam powered printing press 2.0 Telegraph, International Telegraph 2.5 Telephone and the switchboard 3.0 Broadcast media and 4.0 Internet.

At each of these transition points, I have depression and war as we have to Requantize our world view.  The mechanism is a simple, the information technology starts powerful growth in the centers of development, but the greater society wants the change faster than the network can support with minimum redundancy, the links break. So here are the violent Requantizations:
1.0 European nation building and religious wars 1.5 Migration, Colonial and national revolutions and the restructure of international trade 2.0 American Civil War, German Civil war and the Long Depression of 1870  2.5 WW1 3.0 WW2 4.0 Revolution in the Middle East,  American and Chinese political restructuring.

 Mostly these things happen because of congestion when the Fibonacci grows, the spiral doesn't stop until it reaches the total of society. Our brains compute these numbers with neural counters, we count out what comes next and see low hanging fruit. That process is paced by information technology.

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